Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Predators vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (42%) · Over at 24¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$719.52

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 24¢

-52% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares10,634

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares9,532

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over — 42%Under — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHoggCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$5.1K	$4.0K	$-1.1K	12% 5-37 (42)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$901.6	49% 620-647 (1267)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 49¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$679.45	51% 2392-2332 (4724)
RN1	Underavg 49¢	$489.51	$699.3	+$209.79	56% 5116-4067 (9183)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 44¢	$317.55	$96.13	-$5.29	44% 75-94 (169)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 44.4¢	$90.36	$86.8	-$3.56	49% 3587-3673 (7260)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44¢	$28.16	$44.8	+$16.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.4¢	$62.2	$42	-$20.2
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$75.42	$80.7	+$18.28	49% 1381-1418 (2799)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 46.2¢	$243.32	$79.75	-$32.85	48% 2982-3276 (6258)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 55.6¢	$63.63	$73.78	+$10.15	53% 759-682 (1441)
RO royalestakeCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$37.4	$33.25	-$4.16	7% 15-191 (206)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$35.84	$25.6	-$10.24	33% 146-291 (437)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 54¢	$17.42	$20.38	+$2.96	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 56¢	$1.62	$2.02	+$0.41	45% 2387-2862 (5249)

DaBossHoggCTR

Over

Invested

$5,051.79

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

12%

5-37 (42)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$2,254

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$901.6

Record

49%

620-647 (1267)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$2,194.94

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$679.45

Record

51%

2392-2332 (4724)

RN1

Under

Invested

$489.51

Value

$699.3

PnL

+$209.79

Record

56%

5116-4067 (9183)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$317.55

Value

$96.13

PnL

-$5.29

Record

44%

75-94 (169)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$90.36

Value

$86.8

PnL

-$3.56

Record

49%

3587-3673 (7260)

Both legs:

Under$28.1644¢+$16.64

Over$62.244.4¢-$20.2

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$75.42

Value

$80.7

PnL

+$18.28

Record

49%

1381-1418 (2799)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$243.32

Value

$79.75

PnL

-$32.85

Record

48%

2982-3276 (6258)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$63.63

Value

$73.78

PnL

+$10.15

Record

53%

759-682 (1441)

royalestakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.4

Value

$33.25

PnL

-$4.16

Record

15-191 (206)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.84

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$10.24

Record

33%

146-291 (437)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$17.42

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$2.96

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$1.62

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.41

Record

45%

2387-2862 (5249)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.