Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Predators vs. Kings: O/U 4.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 30¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$97.6
74.8¢ → 29.5¢
-61% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 47.6¢ | $603.8 | $548.83 | -$54.97 | 54% 1691-1468 (3159) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 52¢ | $237.33 | $321.77 | +$84.44 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.6¢ | $366.46 | $227.06 | -$139.4 | |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 78¢ | $464.72 | $375.35 | -$89.37 | 57% 3101-2332 (5433) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 47.3¢ | $47.04 | $49.75 | +$2.71 | 50% 1618-1607 (3225) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 49.8¢ | $22.08 | $13.86 | -$8.22 | 49% 498-518 (1016) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $10.64 | $6.68 | -$3.96 | 48% 515-569 (1084) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $4.79 | $6.04 | +$1.25 | 48% 1027-1110 (2137) |
Invested
$603.8
Value
$548.83
PnL
-$54.97
Record
54%
1691-1468 (3159)
Both legs:
Invested
$464.72
Value
$375.35
PnL
-$89.37
Record
57%
3101-2332 (5433)
Invested
$47.04
Value
$49.75
PnL
+$2.71
Record
50%
1618-1607 (3225)
Invested
$22.08
Value
$13.86
PnL
-$8.22
Record
49%
498-518 (1016)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$6.68
PnL
-$3.96
Record
48%
515-569 (1084)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$1.25
Record
48%
1027-1110 (2137)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.