Spread: Ducks (-1.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Predators (44%) · Predators at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Ducks2¢Predators98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Predators

Consensus Traders

Predators 44%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$28.84

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 98¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ducks2%

Predators98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Predators4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,212

Combined PnL+$226.82

Ducks5 traders

Total Value$117.57

Total Shares780

Combined PnL-$197.98

Predators — 44%Ducks — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDucks 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Ducks 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Predatorsavg 64¢	$528	$701.25	+$173.25	55% 235-191 (426)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Predatorsavg 64¢	$141.46	$187.88	+$46.42	48% 550-600 (1150)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Predatorsavg 85¢	$78	$89.93	+$11.93	40% 259-395 (654)
PA Pan9X<$100	Predatorsavg 88.8¢	$82.15	$72.53	-$4.78	47% 847-942 (1789)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ducksavg 29.3¢	$177.74	$56.3	-$65.33	47% 1785-2006 (3791)
CH chubbytoroCTR<$100	Ducksavg 35¢	$69.99	$30	-$39.99	— 4-14 (18)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Ducksavg 36¢	$66.96	$27.9	-$39.06	51% 267-256 (523)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Ducksavg 36¢	$56.25	$3.13	-$53.13	51% 2280-2184 (4464)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Ducksavg 42¢	$0.72	$0.26	-$0.47	44% 329-412 (741)

0xheavy888

Predators

Invested

$528

Value

$701.25

PnL

+$173.25

Record

55%

235-191 (426)

Multicoloured-Serf

Predators

Invested

$141.46

Value

$187.88

PnL

+$46.42

Record

48%

550-600 (1150)

justaluckydude<$100

Predators

Invested

$78

Value

$89.93

PnL

+$11.93

Record

40%

259-395 (654)

Pan9X<$100

Predators

Invested

$82.15

Value

$72.53

PnL

-$4.78

Record

47%

847-942 (1789)

38791873984189CTR

Ducks

Invested

$177.74

Value

$56.3

PnL

-$65.33

Record

47%

1785-2006 (3791)

chubbytoroCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$69.99

Value

$30

PnL

-$39.99

Record

—

4-14 (18)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$66.96

Value

$27.9

PnL

-$39.06

Record

51%

267-256 (523)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$56.25

Value

$3.13

PnL

-$53.13

Record

51%

2280-2184 (4464)

lryyyCTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.47

Record

44%

329-412 (741)

Research grade

NeutralPredators at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Predators

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Predators. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDucks 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Ducks 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Predators wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.