Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Devils, while the market favors Islanders (86%). 4 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Devils vs. Islanders

4 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Devils (19%) · Devils at 14¢ · $101K held · ended Nov 8

Devils14¢Islanders86¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Devils

Consensus Traders

Devils 19%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$101.2K

Combined PnL

$-18.1K

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 14.5¢

-75% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidDevils at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Devils14%

Islanders86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Islanders17 traders

Total Value$84.5K

Total Shares97,182

Combined PnL+$31.1K

Devils4 traders

Total Value$16.3K

Total Shares112,723

Combined PnL$-49.2K

Islanders — 81%Devils — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Islandersavg 42¢	$10.7K	$21.8K	+$11.1K	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Islandersavg 77.4¢	$20.3K	$20.2K	-$127.39	48% 405-446 (851)
ST stackingsats	Islandersavg 42¢	$8.4K	$17.5K	+$9.1K	48% 358-393 (751)
TA taylorsversionCTR	Devilsavg 58.2¢	$63.8K	$15.9K	$-47.9K	50% 144-146 (290)
RO royalestake	Islandersavg 41¢	$6.2K	$12.8K	+$6.7K	47% 416-463 (879)
HO HomeRunHazard	Islandersavg 42¢	$3.0K	$6.1K	+$3.1K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
FL Flaznorp	Islandersavg 56.6¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$602.88	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888	Islandersavg 41¢	$470.3	$957.81	+$487.51	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
38 38791873984189	Islandersavg 49¢	$1.1K	$855.76	+$118.15	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
BO BoomLaLa	Islandersavg 85¢	$766.05	$667.29	-$91.27	53% 12855-11522 (24377)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Islandersavg 59.9¢	$553.68	$564.92	+$11.24	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
BI BillBenter2026	Islandersavg 54.4¢	$450.94	$541.04	+$90.09	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
CO cocococococoCTR	Devilsavg 58¢	$1.6K	$402.66	$-1.2K	52% 1759-1599 (3358)
OJ ojg	Islandersavg 81.3¢	$344.61	$355.43	+$10.82	43% 838-1096 (1934)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Devilsavg 29.8¢	$358.87	$244.99	-$113.88	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 29.8¢	$283.87	$138.12	-$145.75
└ Islanders leg	Islandersavg 60¢	$75	$106.88	+$31.88
0X 0xfFFF6537	Islandersavg 49.7¢	$171.68	$182.71	+$11.03	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Islandersavg 42.4¢	$48.99	$93.95	+$44.95	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Devilsavg 53.4¢	$125.83	$72.7	-$53.13	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
└ Islanders leg	Islandersavg 57¢	$31.35	$47.03	+$15.67
└ Devils leg	Devilsavg 53.4¢	$94.48	$25.68	-$68.8
PA Pan9X	Islandersavg 52.7¢	$207.69	$61.1	+$30.69	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0xheavy888<$100	Islandersavg 41¢	$51.08	$51.7	+$0.62	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
WE westing.v1<$100	Islandersavg 43.2¢	$29	$27.51	-$0.34	— 0-1 (1)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Devilsavg 58¢	$102.96	$25.74	-$77.22	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Devilsavg 58¢	$23.3	$5.82	-$17.47	58% 23579-16943 (40522)

nigiri99

Islanders

Invested

$10,717.98

Value

$21.8K

PnL

+$11.1K

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Multicoloured-Serf

Islanders

Invested

$20,295.4

Value

$20.2K

PnL

-$127.39

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

stackingsats

Islanders

Invested

$8,400

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$9.1K

Record

48%

358-393 (751)

taylorsversionCTR

Devils

Invested

$63,812.06

Value

$15.9K

PnL

$-47.9K

Record

50%

144-146 (290)

royalestake

Islanders

Invested

$6,150

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$6.7K

Record

47%

416-463 (879)

HomeRunHazard

Islanders

Invested

$2,977

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Flaznorp

Islanders

Invested

$1,189.35

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$602.88

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888

Islanders

Invested

$470.3

Value

$957.81

PnL

+$487.51

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

38791873984189

Islanders

Invested

$1,138.76

Value

$855.76

PnL

+$118.15

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

BoomLaLa

Islanders

Invested

$766.05

Value

$667.29

PnL

-$91.27

Record

53%

12855-11522 (24377)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Islanders

Invested

$553.68

Value

$564.92

PnL

+$11.24

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

BillBenter2026

Islanders

Invested

$450.94

Value

$541.04

PnL

+$90.09

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

cocococococoCTR

Devils

Invested

$1,611.54

Value

$402.66

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

52%

1759-1599 (3358)

ojg

Islanders

Invested

$344.61

Value

$355.43

PnL

+$10.82

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$358.87

Value

$244.99

PnL

-$113.88

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

Both legs:

Devils$283.8729.8¢-$145.75

Islanders$7560¢+$31.88

0xfFFF6537

Islanders

Invested

$171.68

Value

$182.71

PnL

+$11.03

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Islanders

Invested

$48.99

Value

$93.95

PnL

+$44.95

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Devils

Invested

$125.83

Value

$72.7

PnL

-$53.13

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

Both legs:

Islanders$31.3557¢+$15.67

Devils$94.4853.4¢-$68.8

Pan9X

Islanders

Invested

$207.69

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$30.69

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xheavy888<$100

Islanders

Invested

$51.08

Value

$51.7

PnL

+$0.62

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

westing.v1<$100

Islanders

Invested

$29

Value

$27.51

PnL

-$0.34

Record

—

0-1 (1)

darkumbreon88CTR

Devils

Invested

$102.96

Value

$25.74

PnL

-$77.22

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Devils

Invested

$23.3

Value

$5.82

PnL

-$17.47

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Research grade

AvoidDevils at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Devils

4 of 21 top traders (19%)Underdog side (market favors Islanders 86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.