Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (69%). 7 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wild vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5

7 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Over (27%) · Over at 32¢ · $92K held · ended Nov 13

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$92.4K

Combined PnL

$444.7

Smart Money Entry

49.2¢ → 31.5¢

-36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 26 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares90,769

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under19 traders

Total Value$49.2K

Total Shares87,499

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Over — 27%Under — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$33.3K	$33.8K	+$477.15	52% 388-362 (750)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 51¢	$21.8K	$22.4K	+$577.3	48% 581-618 (1199)
AN AnonymousUsername	Underavg 50.5¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	-$176.45	41% 49-71 (120)
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$9.3K	$7.6K	$-1.7K	68% 2613-1210 (3823)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 51.5¢	$5.0K	$6.1K	+$1.1K	29% 51-126 (177)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	-$37.1	19% 127-534 (661)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$22.22	53% 852-766 (1618)
VI vibing123	Underavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$402.96	62% 1115-670 (1785)
0xheavy888	Underavg 50¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$12.39	56% 312-248 (560)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 56.6¢	$998.61	$1.2K	+$155.78	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 51¢	$1,000	$970.59	-$29.41	4% 20-525 (545)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.1¢	$862.27	$899.44	+$37.17	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$707.17	-$370.42	4% 7-180 (187)
RN1CTR	Overavg 47¢	$491.15	$496.38	+$5.23	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 49¢	$435.12	$430.68	-$4.44	44% 177-221 (398)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 50.4¢	$264.34	$275.1	+$10.76	43% 119-161 (280)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 27.6¢	$140	$159.69	+$19.69	23% 58-198 (256)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 52.7¢	$112.1	$125.39	+$13.29	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 57.5¢	$57.16	$68.08	+$10.92	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$49.5	$50	+$0.5	54% 529-444 (973)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$26	$26.25	+$0.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$23.5	$23.75	+$0.25
PA Pan9X	Underavg 70.7¢	$127.39	$46.87	-$5.44	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 73¢	$49.43	$46.67	-$2.76	36% 559-993 (1552)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 72¢	$31.49	$32.58	+$1.09	48% 652-699 (1351)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$25.94	$25.76	-$0.18	53% 1117-973 (2090)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 52¢	$26	$25.75	-$0.25	29% 105-255 (360)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$33,282.86

Value

$33.8K

PnL

+$477.15

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$21,827.49

Value

$22.4K

PnL

+$577.3

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

AnonymousUsername

Under

Invested

$8,715.2

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$176.45

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$9,296.44

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

68%

2613-1210 (3823)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$5,003.5

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

29%

51-126 (177)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$3,709.52

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$37.1

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,075.6

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$22.22

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$1,131.35

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$402.96

Record

62%

1115-670 (1785)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$1,251.44

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.39

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$998.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$155.78

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$970.59

PnL

-$29.41

Record

20-525 (545)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$862.27

Value

$899.44

PnL

+$37.17

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

stackingsatsCTR

Over

Invested

$1,077.59

Value

$707.17

PnL

-$370.42

Record

7-180 (187)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$491.15

Value

$496.38

PnL

+$5.23

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$435.12

Value

$430.68

PnL

-$4.44

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$264.34

Value

$275.1

PnL

+$10.76

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$140

Value

$159.69

PnL

+$19.69

Record

23%

58-198 (256)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$112.1

Value

$125.39

PnL

+$13.29

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$57.16

Value

$68.08

PnL

+$10.92

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$49.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

Both legs:

Invested

$127.39

Value

$46.87

PnL

-$5.44

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$49.43

Value

$46.67

PnL

-$2.76

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$31.49

Value

$32.58

PnL

+$1.09

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$25.94

Value

$25.76

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$26

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 32%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 26 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors Under 69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.