Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (94%). 9 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wild vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 6.0¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 11

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.9K

Combined PnL

$-11.5K

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 6¢

-87% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$18.9K

Total Shares25,989

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Over9 traders

Total Value$20.9K

Total Shares78,788

Combined PnL$-16.6K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (16 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 50.5¢	$6.9K	$9.4K	+$2.5K	47% 500-558 (1058)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49.3¢	$19.3K	$8.0K	$-11.3K	52% 128-120 (248)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 43¢	$5.1K	$5.7K	+$597.22	11% 24-189 (213)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.7K	$5.4K	$-1.3K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$5.5K	$3.7K	$-1.7K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$432.2
PU purplegattoCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$9.7K	$3.7K	$-6.0K	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.2¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$690	51% 299-291 (590)
0xheavy888	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$356.88	55% 119-96 (215)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$258.76	41% 113-161 (274)
VI vibing123	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$653.31	63% 1078-642 (1720)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$590	10% 88-785 (873)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 44.5¢	$1.1K	$605.05	+$23.43	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$294.68	$380.86	+$86.18
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$316.45	$224.19	-$62.75
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 44¢	$463.41	$505.54	+$42.13	8% 37-422 (459)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 50¢	$259.94	$423.69	+$163.76	28% 274-715 (989)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 45.4¢	$585.15	$406	-$179.14	48% 190-206 (396)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 57.4¢	$268.93	$362.37	+$94.06	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$36.5	$59.5	+$22.99	27% 63-170 (233)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$44.79	$44.23	+$6.79	49% 443-470 (913)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 44.9¢	$43.64	$30.77	-$4.25	54% 383-321 (704)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$7.5	$4.73	-$2.78	68% 1595-745 (2340)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.4	+$0.15	26% 180-518 (698)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$6,914.05

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$19,318.21

Value

$8.0K

PnL

$-11.3K

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$5,136.1

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$597.22

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,725.43

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

Both legs:

Over$5,465.8746¢$-1.7K

Under$1,259.5751¢+$432.2

purplegattoCTR

Over

Invested

$9,715.16

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,050

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$690

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$2,182.71

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$356.88

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$2,225.32

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$258.76

Record

41%

113-161 (274)

vibing123

Under

Invested

$1,092.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$653.31

Record

63%

1078-642 (1720)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$590

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,148.37

Value

$605.05

PnL

+$23.43

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Under$294.6853¢+$86.18

Over$316.4544.5¢-$62.75

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$463.41

Value

$505.54

PnL

+$42.13

Record

37-422 (459)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$259.94

Value

$423.69

PnL

+$163.76

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$585.15

Value

$406

PnL

-$179.14

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$268.93

Value

$362.37

PnL

+$94.06

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$36.5

Value

$59.5

PnL

+$22.99

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$44.79

Value

$44.23

PnL

+$6.79

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.64

Value

$30.77

PnL

-$4.25

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$2.78

Record

68%

1595-745 (2340)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 18 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 94%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-41 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

59% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (16 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 62% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1265.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

1365.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.