Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (88%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Oilers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 12¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over12¢Under88¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$19.54

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 12¢

-69% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over12%

Under88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$992.19

Total Shares1,185

Combined PnL+$243.35

Over7 traders

Total Value$687.87

Total Shares2,395

Combined PnL-$262.89

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Underavg 62¢	$532.58	$738.74	+$206.16	44% 224-287 (511)
RN1CTR	Overavg 37.2¢	$477.04	$454.77	-$22.27	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 40.5¢	$356.4	$123.16	-$233.24	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Underavg 63¢	$73	$77.63	+$4.62	34% 170-325 (495)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 67.6¢	$101	$59.37	+$1.87	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Underavg 65¢	$39.65	$52.46	+$12.81	45% 140-171 (311)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$47.84	$51.37	+$3.53	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 62.1¢	$36.02	$49.88	+$13.86	40% 632-954 (1586)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 43.4¢	$35.68	$39.15	+$3.46	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 35¢	$10.08	$14.11	+$4.03	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$9	$10.2	+$1.2	51% 970-935 (1905)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$22.5	$7	-$15.5	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.23	-$0.07	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$532.58

Value

$738.74

PnL

+$206.16

Record

44%

224-287 (511)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$477.04

Value

$454.77

PnL

-$22.27

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$356.4

Value

$123.16

PnL

-$233.24

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

BoomLaLa<$100

Under

Invested

$73

Value

$77.63

PnL

+$4.62

Record

34%

170-325 (495)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$101

Value

$59.37

PnL

+$1.87

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Under

Invested

$39.65

Value

$52.46

PnL

+$12.81

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.84

Value

$51.37

PnL

+$3.53

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$36.02

Value

$49.88

PnL

+$13.86

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.68

Value

$39.15

PnL

+$3.46

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$10.08

Value

$14.11

PnL

+$4.03

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

PnL

-$15.5

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.07

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.