Spread: Oilers (-1.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Maple Leafs (62%) · Maple Leafs at 68¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Oilers33¢Maple Leafs67¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maple Leafs

Consensus Traders

Maple Leafs 62%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$3.02

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 67.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oilers33%

Maple Leafs68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oilers5 traders

Total Value$596.45

Total Shares1,723

Combined PnL-$17.89

Maple Leafs8 traders

Total Value$652.54

Total Shares989

Combined PnL+$14.87

Oilers — 38%Maple Leafs — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Libratus007CTR	Oilersavg 37¢	$349	$339.57	-$9.43	— 3-7 (10)
fyrsken	Maple Leafsavg 64¢	$323.02	$325.72	+$2.7	50% 58-59 (117)
FL Flaznorp	Maple Leafsavg 64.3¢	$156.53	$163.18	+$6.65	49% 4123-4317 (8440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Oilersavg 32¢	$121.89	$125.7	+$3.81	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Oilersavg 36¢	$91.44	$82.55	-$8.89	52% 602-565 (1167)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maple Leafsavg 64.5¢	$55.91	$55.79	+$1.63	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Oilersavg 36¢	$49.66	$46.21	-$3.45	45% 277-332 (609)
38 38791873984189	Maple Leafsavg 63¢	$111.63	$44.03	+$2.41	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Maple Leafsavg 65¢	$32.5	$33.5	+$1	35% 166-306 (472)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Maple Leafsavg 63¢	$17.03	$17.43	+$0.41	47% 339-375 (714)
GH ghorrock<$100	Maple Leafsavg 63¢	$9.6	$9.6	+$0	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Maple Leafsavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.28	+$0.08	48% 2245-2407 (4652)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Oilersavg 32¢	$2.35	$2.42	+$0.07	38% 1175-1954 (3129)

Libratus007CTR

Oilers

Invested

$349

Value

$339.57

PnL

-$9.43

Record

—

3-7 (10)

fyrsken

Maple Leafs

Invested

$323.02

Value

$325.72

PnL

+$2.7

Record

50%

58-59 (117)

Flaznorp

Maple Leafs

Invested

$156.53

Value

$163.18

PnL

+$6.65

Record

49%

4123-4317 (8440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Oilers

Invested

$121.89

Value

$125.7

PnL

+$3.81

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$91.44

Value

$82.55

PnL

-$8.89

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

Pan9X<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$55.91

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$1.63

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$49.66

Value

$46.21

PnL

-$3.45

Record

45%

277-332 (609)

38791873984189

Maple Leafs

Invested

$111.63

Value

$44.03

PnL

+$2.41

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

BoomLaLa<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$32.5

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$1

Record

35%

166-306 (472)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$17.03

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$0.41

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

ghorrock<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$9.6

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

ferdinand2<$100

Maple Leafs

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2245-2407 (4652)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Oilers

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Research grade

NeutralMaple Leafs at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Maple Leafs

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maple Leafs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.