Red Wings vs. Blues: O/U 4.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 72¢ · $853 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$852.99
-$3.59
69.9¢ → 71.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 35¢ | $250.55 | $351.03 | +$100.48 | 54% 1662-1438 (3100) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 76¢ | $469.91 | $302.97 | -$166.94 | 57% 3075-2312 (5387) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $72.99 | $76.66 | +$3.67 | 50% 1562-1566 (3128) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 52.4¢ | $147.78 | $75.83 | +$56.51 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $23.18 | $24.73 | +$1.55 | 62% 2365-1458 (3823) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 70.1¢ | $20.64 | $21.78 | +$1.14 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
Invested
$250.55
Value
$351.03
PnL
+$100.48
Record
54%
1662-1438 (3100)
Invested
$469.91
Value
$302.97
PnL
-$166.94
Record
57%
3075-2312 (5387)
Invested
$72.99
Value
$76.66
PnL
+$3.67
Record
50%
1562-1566 (3128)
Invested
$147.78
Value
$75.83
PnL
+$56.51
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$23.18
Value
$24.73
PnL
+$1.55
Record
62%
2365-1458 (3823)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$21.78
PnL
+$1.14
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.