Red Wings vs. Panthers: O/U 5.5

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 77¢ · $50K held · ended Nov 13

Over77¢Under23¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.0K

Combined PnL

$4.5K

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 76.5¢

+33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over77%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$26.6K

Total Shares34,756

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares17,196

Combined PnL$-2.0K

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 57.6¢	$19.9K	$26.4K	+$6.5K	8% 3-37 (40)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 43.1¢	$12.0K	$13.3K	+$1.3K	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.1¢	$8.2K	$9.5K	+$1.2K
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.1¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$28.03
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$69.59	56% 312-248 (560)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$16.47
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.8¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$53.13
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 42.1¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$170.89	41% 49-71 (120)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 50¢	$3.8K	$1.9K	$-1.9K	52% 2602-2442 (5044)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$840	$600	+$24	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$330	$333	+$3
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.5¢	$255	$267	+$21
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 42¢	$564.19	$597.78	+$33.58	19% 127-534 (661)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$309.32	$335.32	+$26	43% 119-161 (280)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.6¢	$176.8	$209.59	+$32.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$132.52	$125.73	-$6.79
BO BoomLaLa	Overavg 75.9¢	$184.42	$149.9	-$26.6	29% 105-255 (360)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46.5¢	$219.83	$111.1	-$108.73	48% 581-618 (1199)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$139.22	$102.66	-$36.56	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 74.7¢	$69.56	$63.31	-$6.25	42% 331-451 (782)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Underavg 47¢	$114.68	$57.34	-$57.34	55% 211-171 (382)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$24.05	$25.12	+$1.06	53% 1117-973 (2090)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 26.8¢	$44.44	$24.18	+$4.8	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$35.14	$18.61	-$16.53	49% 1386-1434 (2820)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$19,870.14

Value

$26.4K

PnL

+$6.5K

Record

3-37 (40)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$12,046.86

Value

$13.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Both legs:

Under$8,223.6143.1¢+$1.2K

Over$3,823.2450.1¢+$28.03

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,149.2

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$69.59

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

Both legs:

Over$1,811.755¢+$16.47

Under$1,337.542.8¢+$53.13

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$2,945.79

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$170.89

Record

41%

49-71 (120)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$3,808.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

2602-2442 (5044)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$840

Value

$600

PnL

+$24

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

Both legs:

Invested

$564.19

Value

$597.78

PnL

+$33.58

Record

19%

127-534 (661)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$309.32

Value

$335.32

PnL

+$26

Record

43%

119-161 (280)

Both legs:

Under$176.842.6¢+$32.79

Over$132.5252.2¢-$6.79

BoomLaLa

Over

Invested

$184.42

Value

$149.9

PnL

-$26.6

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$219.83

Value

$111.1

PnL

-$108.73

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$139.22

Value

$102.66

PnL

-$36.56

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$69.56

Value

$63.31

PnL

-$6.25

Record

42%

331-451 (782)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Under

Invested

$114.68

Value

$57.34

PnL

-$57.34

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.05

Value

$25.12

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.44

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$4.8

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.14

Value

$18.61

PnL

-$16.53

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 12 top traders (25%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.