Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 45¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11

Over55¢Under45¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$116.88

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 45¢

-30% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$622.55

Total Shares971

Combined PnL-$10.63

Over4 traders

Total Value$491.14

Total Shares1,039

Combined PnL+$127.51

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 65¢	$290.6	$295.13	+$4.53	48% 947-1017 (1964)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 65¢	$260.24	$264.25	+$4	51% 299-291 (590)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 35¢	$144.74	$235.72	+$90.98	28% 274-715 (989)
VE Venusian	Overavg 35¢	$145.73	$137.4	-$8.33	28% 278-729 (1007)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 35¢	$71.37	$116.23	+$44.86	28% 278-703 (981)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$41	$32.65	-$8.35	47% 500-558 (1058)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$22.34	$18.77	-$3.57	49% 443-470 (913)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 66¢	$19.01	$11.76	-$7.25	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.79	$1.79	+$0	54% 383-321 (704)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$290.6

Value

$295.13

PnL

+$4.53

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$260.24

Value

$264.25

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$144.74

Value

$235.72

PnL

+$90.98

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$145.73

Value

$137.4

PnL

-$8.33

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$71.37

Value

$116.23

PnL

+$44.86

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41

Value

$32.65

PnL

-$8.35

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.34

Value

$18.77

PnL

-$3.57

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.01

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$7.25

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$1.79

Value

$1.79

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

383-321 (704)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.