Avalanche vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 76¢ · $853 held · ended Nov 15

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$853.48

Combined PnL

$31.17

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 75.9¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$665.17

Total Shares824

Combined PnL-$24.18

Under6 traders

Total Value$106.44

Total Shares646

Combined PnL+$55.35

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Overavg 85¢	$333.39	$317.52	-$15.87	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 83.2¢	$251.71	$200.56	+$3.43	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 12.8¢	$47.9	$102.29	+$54.39	40% 632-954 (1586)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 80.7¢	$65.57	$81.87	+$16.3	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
└ Over leg	Overavg 80.7¢	$42.58	$42.77	+$0.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 11.1¢	$22.99	$39.1	+$16.1
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 83.1¢	$80.3	$73.04	-$7.26	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 89¢	$40.94	$43.7	+$2.76	51% 970-935 (1905)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 90¢	$37.59	$30.35	-$7.25	34% 170-325 (495)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 0.5¢	$47.62	$1.69	+$2.37	58% 3760-2730 (6490)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$1.05	$1.05	+$0	46% 775-926 (1701)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 0.8¢	$1.11	$0.73	-$0.39	60% 1448-950 (2398)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.86	$0.43	-$0.43	48% 1115-1227 (2342)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.25	-$0.6	53% 2063-1842 (3905)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$333.39

Value

$317.52

PnL

-$15.87

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$251.71

Value

$200.56

PnL

+$3.43

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$47.9

Value

$102.29

PnL

+$54.39

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$65.57

Value

$81.87

PnL

+$16.3

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

Both legs:

Over$42.5880.7¢+$0.19

Under$22.9911.1¢+$16.1

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$80.3

Value

$73.04

PnL

-$7.26

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$40.94

Value

$43.7

PnL

+$2.76

Record

51%

970-935 (1905)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$37.59

Value

$30.35

PnL

-$7.25

Record

34%

170-325 (495)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.62

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$2.37

Record

58%

3760-2730 (6490)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

775-926 (1701)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$0.39

Record

60%

1448-950 (2398)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.43

Record

48%

1115-1227 (2342)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

2063-1842 (3905)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.