Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Avalanche, while the market favors Canadiens (53%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Avalanche (55%) · Avalanche at 48¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Avalanche48¢Canadiens52¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Avalanche

Consensus Traders

Avalanche 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$71.08

Smart Money Entry

32.4¢ → 47.5¢

+47% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Avalanche48%

Canadiens53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Avalanche6 traders

Total Value$923.79

Total Shares2,616

Combined PnL+$83.11

Canadiens5 traders

Total Value$236.58

Total Shares480

Combined PnL-$12.03

Avalanche — 55%Canadiens — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCanadiens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAvalanche 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Canadiensavg 51¢	$688.28	$648.57	-$39.71	55% 5703-4745 (10448)
└ Canadiens leg	Canadiensavg 51¢	$542.13	$499.61	-$42.52
└ Avalanche leg	Avalancheavg 52¢	$146.15	$148.96	+$2.81
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Avalancheavg 23¢	$359.76	$367.58	+$7.82	48% 670-715 (1385)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Avalancheavg 48.2¢	$286.76	$312.39	+$25.63	46% 558-656 (1214)
FL Flaznorp	Canadiensavg 48.5¢	$164.94	$161.7	-$3.24	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Avalancheavg 43.3¢	$88.64	$106.34	+$17.7	45% 140-171 (311)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 46¢	$46	$57	+$11	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 44.4¢	$41.06	$46.71	+$5.66	38% 1308-2106 (3414)
38 38791873984189<$100	Canadiensavg 51¢	$34.31	$35.99	+$1.68	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Avalancheavg 42.2¢	$45.74	$33.77	+$15.3	50% 1827-1860 (3687)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Canadiensavg 77.6¢	$36.17	$22.15	-$14.02	83% 849-177 (1026)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Canadiensavg 56¢	$8.4	$11.55	+$3.15	34% 170-325 (495)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Canadiensavg 48¢	$9.79	$5.19	+$0.4	48% 2325-2529 (4854)

RN1ARB<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$688.28

Value

$648.57

PnL

-$39.71

Record

55%

5703-4745 (10448)

Both legs:

Canadiens$542.1351¢-$42.52

Avalanche$146.1552¢+$2.81

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Avalanche

Invested

$359.76

Value

$367.58

PnL

+$7.82

Record

48%

670-715 (1385)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Avalanche

Invested

$286.76

Value

$312.39

PnL

+$25.63

Record

46%

558-656 (1214)

Flaznorp

Canadiens

Invested

$164.94

Value

$161.7

PnL

-$3.24

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Avalanche

Invested

$88.64

Value

$106.34

PnL

+$17.7

Record

45%

140-171 (311)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$46

Value

$57

PnL

+$11

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$41.06

Value

$46.71

PnL

+$5.66

Record

38%

1308-2106 (3414)

38791873984189<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$34.31

Value

$35.99

PnL

+$1.68

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Avalanche

Invested

$45.74

Value

$33.77

PnL

+$15.3

Record

50%

1827-1860 (3687)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$36.17

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$14.02

Record

83%

849-177 (1026)

BoomLaLa<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$8.4

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$3.15

Record

34%

170-325 (495)

ferdinand2<$100

Canadiens

Invested

$9.79

Value

$5.19

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

Research grade

NeutralAvalanche at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Avalanche

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Canadiens 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Avalanche. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCanadiens 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAvalanche 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Avalanche 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Avalanche wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.