Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hurricanes vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 34¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$152.76

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 33.5¢

-19% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares6,083

Combined PnL+$152.76

Over1 trader

Total Value$1

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$0

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 44.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.1	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
RN1CTR	Underavg 43.4¢	$517.38	$535.98	+$18.61	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 36¢	$329.8	$412.25	+$82.45	54% 278-237 (515)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 39¢	$247.87	$285.89	+$38.02	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Underavg 37.5¢	$75	$90	+$15	29% 102-251 (353)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$58.04	$67.57	+$9.53	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 41.7¢	$59.6	$29.94	-$23.87	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$10.05	$11.52	+$1.47	59% 2959-2052 (5011)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$9	$9	+$0	54% 455-382 (837)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.8	$2.25	+$0.45	38% 492-810 (1302)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 64¢	$1	$1	+$0	14% 29-185 (214)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$1,232.93

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.1

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$517.38

Value

$535.98

PnL

+$18.61

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$329.8

Value

$412.25

PnL

+$82.45

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$247.87

Value

$285.89

PnL

+$38.02

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$90

PnL

+$15

Record

29%

102-251 (353)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.04

Value

$67.57

PnL

+$9.53

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.6

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$23.87

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.05

Value

$11.52

PnL

+$1.47

Record

59%

2959-2052 (5011)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.45

Record

38%

492-810 (1302)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.