Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kraken, while the market favors Hurricanes (80%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Kraken (53%) · Kraken at 20¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Hurricanes80¢Kraken20¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kraken

Consensus Traders

Kraken 53%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$693.65

Smart Money Entry

44.6¢ → 20¢

-55% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidKraken at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hurricanes80%

Kraken20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hurricanes7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,852

Combined PnL+$768.96

Kraken8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares5,440

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Hurricanes — 47%Kraken — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 53% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Hurricanesavg 59.7¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$515.11	51% 2572-2488 (5060)
GL glennyorkshireCTR	Krakenavg 40¢	$1.6K	$759.99	-$839.99	45% 102-126 (228)
BO BoomLaLa	Hurricanesavg 60¢	$457.5	$610	+$152.5	29% 102-251 (353)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Hurricanesavg 63.2¢	$219.13	$280.86	+$61.73	59% 2970-2057 (5027)
PU purplegattoCTR	Krakenavg 61¢	$583.77	$181.83	-$401.94	68% 2611-1206 (3817)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Hurricanesavg 60¢	$48.92	$66.04	+$17.12	49% 1260-1292 (2552)
dips.<$100	Hurricanesavg 61.2¢	$44.07	$58.32	+$14.25	45% 544-658 (1202)
38 38791873984189CTR	Krakenavg 60.5¢	$752.86	$44.59	-$135.06	48% 2245-2429 (4674)
SM smithagent<$100	Hurricanesavg 60¢	$54.2	$40.8	+$6.6	42% 352-480 (832)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Krakenavg 28.5¢	$87.66	$29.55	-$18.93	49% 1083-1136 (2219)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Krakenavg 49.7¢	$37.18	$14.23	-$22.96	36% 546-955 (1501)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Krakenavg 60¢	$96.71	$7.37	-$28.15	47% 169-191 (360)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Krakenavg 61¢	$22.63	$7.05	-$15.58	42% 291-407 (698)
nigiri99	Hurricanesavg 39¢	$706.56	$3.2	+$1.64	52% 353-330 (683)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Krakenavg 19¢	$2.28	$2.28	+$0	54% 475-398 (873)

Flaznorp

Hurricanes

Invested

$1,514.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$515.11

Record

51%

2572-2488 (5060)

glennyorkshireCTR

Kraken

Invested

$1,599.98

Value

$759.99

PnL

-$839.99

Record

45%

102-126 (228)

BoomLaLa

Hurricanes

Invested

$457.5

Value

$610

PnL

+$152.5

Record

29%

102-251 (353)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Hurricanes

Invested

$219.13

Value

$280.86

PnL

+$61.73

Record

59%

2970-2057 (5027)

purplegattoCTR

Kraken

Invested

$583.77

Value

$181.83

PnL

-$401.94

Record

68%

2611-1206 (3817)

ferdinand2<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$48.92

Value

$66.04

PnL

+$17.12

Record

49%

1260-1292 (2552)

dips.<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$44.07

Value

$58.32

PnL

+$14.25

Record

45%

544-658 (1202)

38791873984189CTR

Kraken

Invested

$752.86

Value

$44.59

PnL

-$135.06

Record

48%

2245-2429 (4674)

smithagent<$100

Hurricanes

Invested

$54.2

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$6.6

Record

42%

352-480 (832)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$87.66

Value

$29.55

PnL

-$18.93

Record

49%

1083-1136 (2219)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$37.18

Value

$14.23

PnL

-$22.96

Record

36%

546-955 (1501)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$96.71

Value

$7.37

PnL

-$28.15

Record

47%

169-191 (360)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$22.63

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$15.58

Record

42%

291-407 (698)

nigiri99

Hurricanes

Invested

$706.56

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$1.64

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Kraken

Invested

$2.28

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

475-398 (873)

Research grade

AvoidKraken at 20%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kraken

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Hurricanes 80%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

53% of non-arb traders are on Kraken. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKraken 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Kraken 53% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kraken wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.8%

20.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$358.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

458.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.