Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 85¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Over85¢Under15¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$134.78

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 84.5¢

+34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over85%

Under16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,553

Combined PnL+$346.26

Under6 traders

Total Value$108.56

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$211.48

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Overavg 63¢	$902.97	$1.2K	+$315.32	27% 7-19 (26)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 60.8¢	$72.3	$92.34	+$26.12	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 46¢	$265.71	$63.54	-$202.17	48% 581-620 (1201)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 38.9¢	$39.88	$38.92	-$0.96	45% 143-173 (316)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 61.5¢	$7.79	$11.27	+$3.48	36% 577-1014 (1591)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 60¢	$2.78	$4.12	+$1.34	44% 496-624 (1120)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.9	-$0.05	38% 512-824 (1336)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$6.32	$1.88	-$4.44	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$4.19	$1.57	-$2.62	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 39.8¢	$2	$0.75	-$1.25	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

chubbytoro

Over

Invested

$902.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$315.32

Record

27%

7-19 (26)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$72.3

Value

$92.34

PnL

+$26.12

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$265.71

Value

$63.54

PnL

-$202.17

Record

48%

581-620 (1201)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.88

Value

$38.92

PnL

-$0.96

Record

45%

143-173 (316)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$7.79

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$3.48

Record

36%

577-1014 (1591)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$2.78

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$1.34

Record

44%

496-624 (1120)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

512-824 (1336)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.32

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$4.44

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.19

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$2.62

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.