49ers vs. Cowboys: O/U 58.5

4 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 71¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

55.3¢ → 70.5¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares10,890

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under12 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares11,164

Combined PnL+$292.57

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Overavg 56.5¢	$4.6K	$5.9K	+$1.3K	63% 24-14 (38)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	+$481.95	54% 6103-5202 (11305)
AN Anon455CTR	Underavg 43.7¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$297.3	50% 501-511 (1012)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$39.67	47% 684-778 (1462)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Underavg 44¢	$489.98	$284.04	-$205.93	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 44.4¢	$481.2	$276.44	-$204.76	48% 4069-4469 (8538)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$220.62	$222.03	+$1.41	55% 2010-1678 (3688)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 43.1¢	$211.35	$218.19	+$6.84	50% 4065-4065 (8130)
dips.CTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$251.53	$171.92	-$79.61	48% 1348-1450 (2798)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 51.1¢	$251.21	$127.92	-$6.44	50% 1210-1232 (2442)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.1¢	$93.71	$81.62	-$9.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$41.99	$46.3	+$2.64
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$35.55	$33.01	-$2.54	39% 1675-2667 (4342)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$26.43	$26.17	-$0.26	38% 1414-2288 (3702)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 45¢	$26.44	$24.97	-$1.47	38% 1437-2313 (3750)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$23.83	$22.62	-$1.21	56% 3932-3108 (7040)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$17.4	$16.8	-$0.6	69% 1742-781 (2523)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$9	$3.08	-$0.01	54% 2011-1740 (3751)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.68	+$0.18	50% 665-662 (1327)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Over

Invested

$4,629.99

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

63%

24-14 (38)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,342.55

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$481.95

Record

54%

6103-5202 (11305)

Anon455CTR

Under

Invested

$1,065.15

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$297.3

Record

50%

501-511 (1012)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$1,392.84

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$39.67

Record

47%

684-778 (1462)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Under

Invested

$489.98

Value

$284.04

PnL

-$205.93

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$481.2

Value

$276.44

PnL

-$204.76

Record

48%

4069-4469 (8538)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$220.62

Value

$222.03

PnL

+$1.41

Record

55%

2010-1678 (3688)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$211.35

Value

$218.19

PnL

+$6.84

Record

50%

4065-4065 (8130)

dips.CTR

Under

Invested

$251.53

Value

$171.92

PnL

-$79.61

Record

48%

1348-1450 (2798)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$251.21

Value

$127.92

PnL

-$6.44

Record

50%

1210-1232 (2442)

Both legs:

Over$93.7151.1¢-$9.09

Under$41.9950.3¢+$2.64

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.55

Value

$33.01

PnL

-$2.54

Record

39%

1675-2667 (4342)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$26.43

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$0.26

Record

38%

1414-2288 (3702)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$26.44

Value

$24.97

PnL

-$1.47

Record

38%

1437-2313 (3750)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.83

Value

$22.62

PnL

-$1.21

Record

56%

3932-3108 (7040)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.4

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

69%

1742-781 (2523)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

2011-1740 (3751)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

50%

665-662 (1327)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 16 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.