Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cowboys, while the market favors 49ers (98%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Cowboys (-14.5)

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (100%) · Cowboys at 1.8¢ · $631 held · ended Nov 15

Cowboys2¢49ers98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$631.32

Combined PnL

-$106.63

Smart Money Entry

4.4¢ → 1.8¢

-60% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidCowboys at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys2%

49ers98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys10 traders

Total Value$230

Total Shares7,417

Combined PnL-$106.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCowboys 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 4.6¢	$599.89	$401.32	+$46.86	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 4.6¢	$276.11	$312.93	+$108.4
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 94.3¢	$87.94	$88.39	-$61.55
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Cowboysavg 4.6¢	$113.52	$96.1	-$17.42	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 4.2¢	$86.25	$41.99	-$44.27	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 4.5¢	$56.29	$22.37	-$33.92	44% 349-436 (785)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 5¢	$54.46	$21.23	+$0.68	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 3.6¢	$9.34	$12.45	+$3.11	18% 63-282 (345)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 4.5¢	$9.5	$10.13	+$0.63	19% 40-169 (209)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100	Cowboysavg 3.8¢	$7.47	$9.38	+$1.91	49% 549-581 (1130)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 4.2¢	$18.74	$8.82	-$9.92	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 4.2¢	$7.84	$5.03	-$2.81	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 5.7¢	$7.14	$2.51	-$4.63	38% 1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$599.89

Value

$401.32

PnL

+$46.86

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Cowboys$276.114.6¢+$108.4

49ers$87.9494.3¢-$61.55

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$113.52

Value

$96.1

PnL

-$17.42

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$86.25

Value

$41.99

PnL

-$44.27

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$56.29

Value

$22.37

PnL

-$33.92

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$54.46

Value

$21.23

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$9.34

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$3.11

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$9.5

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.63

Record

19%

40-169 (209)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$7.47

Value

$9.38

PnL

+$1.91

Record

49%

549-581 (1130)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$18.74

Value

$8.82

PnL

-$9.92

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$7.84

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$2.81

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$7.14

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$4.63

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Research grade

AvoidCowboys at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors 49ers 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCowboys 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3367.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

3467.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.