Spread: 49ers (-14.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (67%) · Cowboys at 74¢ · $32K held · ended Nov 15

49ers26¢Cowboys74¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

-$152.75

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 74¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers26%

Cowboys74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys8 traders

Total Value$25.3K

Total Shares32,300

Combined PnL+$46.2

49ers4 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares27,947

Combined PnL-$198.95

Cowboys — 67%49ers — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Cowboysavg 78¢	$23.1K	$23.3K	+$148.11	52% 2703-2514 (5217)
TA takeormakeCTR	49ersavg 22¢	$5.6K	$5.4K	-$255.37	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	49ersavg 22¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$101.07	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 22¢	$944.67	$839.12	-$82.02
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 80¢	$413.4	$416.19	-$19.06
nigiri99	Cowboysavg 79¢	$913.24	$849.66	-$63.58	50% 760-746 (1506)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Cowboysavg 80¢	$500	$503.13	+$3.13	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Cowboysavg 80.9¢	$460.52	$418.51	-$42.01	30% 501-1144 (1645)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	49ersavg 21¢	$245.91	$251.76	+$5.85	41% 173-249 (422)
VE VenusianCTR	49ersavg 20¢	$147.88	$195.94	+$48.06	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
RollAwayTheDew	Cowboysavg 79¢	$158	$159	+$1	18% 63-282 (345)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	49ersavg 19¢	$95	$97.5	+$2.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 79.6¢	$51.29	$50.64	-$0.66	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
unknowngambler<$100	Cowboysavg 78¢	$42.89	$42.89	+$0	— 5-10 (15)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Cowboysavg 77¢	$16.94	$17.16	+$0.22	39% 237-370 (607)

CUTJALENHURTS

Cowboys

Invested

$23,104.45

Value

$23.3K

PnL

+$148.11

Record

52%

2703-2514 (5217)

takeormakeCTR

49ers

Invested

$5,618.13

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$255.37

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

38791873984189ARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$1,443.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$101.07

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

49ers$944.6722¢-$82.02

Cowboys$413.480¢-$19.06

nigiri99

Cowboys

Invested

$913.24

Value

$849.66

PnL

-$63.58

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

xtxpleasecallme

Cowboys

Invested

$500

Value

$503.13

PnL

+$3.13

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Cowboys

Invested

$460.52

Value

$418.51

PnL

-$42.01

Record

30%

501-1144 (1645)

mouzsynapseCTR

49ers

Invested

$245.91

Value

$251.76

PnL

+$5.85

Record

41%

173-249 (422)

VenusianCTR

49ers

Invested

$147.88

Value

$195.94

PnL

+$48.06

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

RollAwayTheDew

Cowboys

Invested

$158

Value

$159

PnL

+$1

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$95

Value

$97.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$51.29

Value

$50.64

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

unknowngambler<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$42.89

Value

$42.89

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-10 (15)

BoomLaLa<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$16.94

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$0.22

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCowboys 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.