1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (33%) · Cowboys at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

49ers8¢Cowboys92¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$164.87

Smart Money Entry

60.5¢ → 92.2¢

+52% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

49ers8%

Cowboys92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL+$622.55

49ers6 traders

Total Value$257.68

Total Shares1,639

Combined PnL-$457.68

Cowboys — 33%49ers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr49ers 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 100049ers 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Cowboysavg 65.4¢	$850.68	$1.2K	+$348.19	29% 32-78 (110)
FO Forecastication2	Cowboysavg 50¢	$278	$512.35	+$234.35	44% 360-455 (815)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	49ersavg 44¢	$164.12	$124.12	-$40	47% 536-593 (1129)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	49ersavg 35¢	$247.42	$106.88	-$140.53	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 96¢	$69.84	$67.04	-$2.8
└ 49ers leg	49ersavg 35¢	$177.58	$39.84	-$137.73
nigiri99	Cowboysavg 56¢	$178.88	$98.88	+$40	51% 793-768 (1561)
38 38791873984189CTR	49ersavg 47.4¢	$324.44	$53.77	-$270.67	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	49ersavg 34¢	$153.68	$35.48	-$118.2	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
dips.CTR<$100	49ersavg 4¢	$2.91	$28.08	+$25.17	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	49ersavg 34¢	$68	$15.7	-$52.3	39% 1738-2713 (4451)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	49ersavg 33¢	$2.21	$0.52	-$1.68	45% 389-480 (869)

lightotunnel35

Cowboys

Invested

$850.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$348.19

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

Forecastication2

Cowboys

Invested

$278

Value

$512.35

PnL

+$234.35

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

49ers

Invested

$164.12

Value

$124.12

PnL

-$40

Record

47%

536-593 (1129)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

49ers

Invested

$247.42

Value

$106.88

PnL

-$140.53

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Both legs:

Cowboys$69.8496¢-$2.8

49ers$177.5835¢-$137.73

nigiri99

Cowboys

Invested

$178.88

Value

$98.88

PnL

+$40

Record

51%

793-768 (1561)

38791873984189CTR

49ers

Invested

$324.44

Value

$53.77

PnL

-$270.67

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

49ers

Invested

$153.68

Value

$35.48

PnL

-$118.2

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

dips.CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$2.91

Value

$28.08

PnL

+$25.17

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$68

Value

$15.7

PnL

-$52.3

Record

39%

1738-2713 (4451)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

49ers

Invested

$2.21

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$1.68

Record

45%

389-480 (869)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

ctr49ers 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 100049ers 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.