Seahawks vs. Raiders: O/U 46.5

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 54¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$207.3

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 53.5¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares6,325

Combined PnL-$29.84

Under7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,421

Combined PnL+$237.14

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$59.68	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
BI biying88888	Underavg 49¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$165.42	43% 247-322 (569)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$28.99	49% 497-511 (1008)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$0.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$383.93	$413.79	+$29.86
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 46.9¢	$689.54	$712.65	+$23.11	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 55.8¢	$418.5	$472.5	+$54	77% 285-84 (369)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 44.2¢	$320.7	$337.59	+$16.89	50% 663-662 (1325)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$327.91	$326.59	-$1.32	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$237.91	$221.59	-$16.32
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$90	$105	+$15
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 47¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 68¢	$244.99	$235.98	-$9.01	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 32¢	$102.43	$110.43	+$8	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$114	$88.73	+$0.58	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$52.5	$56.18	+$3.68
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$34.44	$32.55	-$3.1
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 46¢	$30.59	$35.58	+$4.99	43% 248-330 (578)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$26.94	$29.04	+$2.1	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 68¢	$29.92	$28.82	-$1.1	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
CM cm2897<$100	Underavg 47¢	$25.85	$25.58	-$0.27	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.65	$7.91	+$0.25	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.7	$2.79	+$0.09	46% 911-1085 (1996)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,278.88

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$59.68

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

biying88888

Under

Invested

$1,801.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$165.42

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,391.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$28.99

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Both legs:

Over$1,007.751.5¢-$0.88

Under$383.9345¢+$29.86

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$689.54

Value

$712.65

PnL

+$23.11

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$418.5

Value

$472.5

PnL

+$54

Record

77%

285-84 (369)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$320.7

Value

$337.59

PnL

+$16.89

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$327.91

Value

$326.59

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Over$237.9151¢-$16.32

Under$9045¢+$15

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$244.99

Value

$235.98

PnL

-$9.01

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$102.43

Value

$110.43

PnL

+$8

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$114

Value

$88.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Over$52.550¢+$3.68

Under$34.4449.2¢-$3.1

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$30.59

Value

$35.58

PnL

+$4.99

Record

43%

248-330 (578)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.94

Value

$29.04

PnL

+$2.1

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$29.92

Value

$28.82

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

cm2897<$100

Under

Invested

$25.85

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.65

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.09

Record

46%

911-1085 (1996)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.