Spread: Raiders (-6.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (89%) · Seahawks at 99¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Raiders<1¢Seahawks>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 89%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$398.07

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 99.2¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders1%

Seahawks99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares10,693

Combined PnL+$397.02

Raiders1 trader

Total Value$106.05

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$1.05

Seahawks — 89%Raiders — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Seahawksavg 84¢	$6.6K	$6.9K	+$313.96	54% 6261-5369 (11630)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 85¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$60	50% 567-573 (1140)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Seahawksavg 85¢	$425	$440	+$15	55% 2159-1794 (3953)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 85.7¢	$128.5	$132	+$3.5	48% 4254-4679 (8933)
NO NotJumpCTR	Raidersavg 50¢	$105	$106.05	+$1.05	49% 1309-1353 (2662)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Seahawksavg 86.2¢	$73.3	$74.8	+$1.5	57% 4106-3040 (7146)
CM cm2897<$100	Seahawksavg 85¢	$42.5	$44	+$1.5	49% 1281-1327 (2608)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 84.5¢	$37.16	$38.72	+$1.56	50% 2334-2317 (4651)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Seahawksavg 88¢	$13.35	$13.35	+$0	50% 4157-4147 (8304)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$6,593.16

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$313.96

Record

54%

6261-5369 (11630)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$1,700

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$60

Record

50%

567-573 (1140)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Seahawks

Invested

$425

Value

$440

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

2159-1794 (3953)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$128.5

Value

$132

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

4254-4679 (8933)

NotJumpCTR

Raiders

Invested

$105

Value

$106.05

PnL

+$1.05

Record

49%

1309-1353 (2662)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$73.3

Value

$74.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

57%

4106-3040 (7146)

cm2897<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$42.5

Value

$44

PnL

+$1.5

Record

49%

1281-1327 (2608)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$37.16

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$1.56

Record

50%

2334-2317 (4651)

6512395314597884<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4157-4147 (8304)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.