Spread: Raiders (-1.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (83%) · Seahawks at 85¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Raiders16¢Seahawks84¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$610.45

Smart Money Entry

64.2¢ → 84.5¢

+32% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raiders16%

Seahawks85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raiders2 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares6,342

Combined PnL+$568.4

Seahawks10 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,539

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Raiders — 17%Seahawks — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Raidersavg 35.6¢	$2.1K	$2.8K	+$671.63	59% 1231-873 (2104)
RN1	Seahawksavg 65¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	-$614.64	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 64.4¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$340.05	50% 563-572 (1135)
65 6512395314597884	Seahawksavg 63¢	$636.32	$535.22	-$101.09	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 64¢	$384	$318	-$66	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
BI biying88888	Seahawksavg 60¢	$264	$233.2	-$30.8	44% 268-345 (613)
NO NotJump	Seahawksavg 50¢	$163.8	$92.24	+$2.87	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Raidersavg 38.3¢	$181.38	$78.14	-$103.23	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
PA Pan9X<$100	Seahawksavg 64.2¢	$78.38	$64.66	-$13.72	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Seahawksavg 63¢	$53.5	$50	-$3.5	57% 3727-2840 (6567)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 63¢	$31.5	$26.5	-$5
└ Raiders leg	Raidersavg 44¢	$22	$23.5	+$1.5
CM cm2897<$100	Seahawksavg 59¢	$38.94	$34.98	-$3.96	49% 1281-1325 (2606)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Seahawksavg 64.1¢	$37.2	$30.74	-$6.46	50% 714-704 (1418)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Seahawksavg 63¢	$31.5	$26.5	-$5	57% 4084-3020 (7104)

primmCTR

Raiders

Invested

$2,086.33

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$671.63

Record

59%

1231-873 (2104)

RN1

Seahawks

Invested

$3,329.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$614.64

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$1,918.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$340.05

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

6512395314597884

Seahawks

Invested

$636.32

Value

$535.22

PnL

-$101.09

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$384

Value

$318

PnL

-$66

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

biying88888

Seahawks

Invested

$264

Value

$233.2

PnL

-$30.8

Record

44%

268-345 (613)

NotJump

Seahawks

Invested

$163.8

Value

$92.24

PnL

+$2.87

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Raiders

Invested

$181.38

Value

$78.14

PnL

-$103.23

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

Pan9X<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$78.38

Value

$64.66

PnL

-$13.72

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

takeormakeARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$53.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$3.5

Record

57%

3727-2840 (6567)

Both legs:

Invested

$38.94

Value

$34.98

PnL

-$3.96

Record

49%

1281-1325 (2606)

justaluckydude<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$37.2

Value

$30.74

PnL

-$6.46

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$31.5

Value

$26.5

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 85%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.