Spread: Chiefs (-7.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (50%) · Chiefs at 69¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs69¢Jets31¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.7K

Combined PnL

$63.58

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 68.5¢

+27% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs69%

Jets32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs5 traders

Total Value$24.4K

Total Shares47,795

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Jets5 traders

Total Value$23.2K

Total Shares46,954

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Chiefs — 50%Jets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrJets 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Chiefsavg 55¢	$24.2K	$21.8K	$-2.4K	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 45¢	$40.0K	$20.2K	+$2.2K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 53.4¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$694.91	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1	Chiefsavg 46¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$591.26	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jetsavg 45¢	$1.7K	$730.23	+$79.53	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
65 6512395314597884	Chiefsavg 48.3¢	$328.85	$473.14	+$144.29	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Chiefsavg 29¢	$215.11	$349.19	+$134.09	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
AN Anon455CTR	Jetsavg 45¢	$180.45	$202.51	+$22.06	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Jetsavg 49.7¢	$86.35	$71.1	-$4.45	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 49.7¢	$53.69	$42.66	-$10.45
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 48.6¢	$22.85	$28.44	+$5.99
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jetsavg 45¢	$50.4	$56.56	+$6.16	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Chiefsavg 53¢	$44.83	$46.24	+$1.4	50% 48547-48163 (96710)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Chiefs

Invested

$24,202.72

Value

$21.8K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$39,999

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$2,719.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$694.91

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$1,157.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$591.26

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

38791873984189CTR

Jets

Invested

$1,746

Value

$730.23

PnL

+$79.53

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

6512395314597884

Chiefs

Invested

$328.85

Value

$473.14

PnL

+$144.29

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Chiefs

Invested

$215.11

Value

$349.19

PnL

+$134.09

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Anon455CTR

Jets

Invested

$180.45

Value

$202.51

PnL

+$22.06

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Pan9XARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$86.35

Value

$71.1

PnL

-$4.45

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Both legs:

Jets$53.6949.7¢-$10.45

Chiefs$22.8548.6¢+$5.99

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$50.4

Value

$56.56

PnL

+$6.16

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

SnakeBall<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$44.83

Value

$46.24

PnL

+$1.4

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrJets 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 80% · 10

Diverging

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.