Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Chiefs (72%). 8 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (57%) · Jets at 28¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs72¢Jets28¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$181.83

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 28.5¢

-40% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidJets at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs72%

Jets28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs6 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares15,915

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Jets8 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares20,673

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Chiefs — 43%Jets — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chiefs) and the top 1000 (11 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrJets 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Chiefsavg 50.3¢	$5.4K	$6.5K	+$1.1K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 48.8¢	$5.6K	$3.8K	-$890.87	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
BI biying88888CTR	Jetsavg 47¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$640.45	48% 233-252 (485)
AN Anon455	Chiefsavg 58.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$56.87	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
65 6512395314597884	Chiefsavg 52.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$80.92	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jetsavg 52.1¢	$1.3K	$998.95	-$162.6	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 52.1¢	$838.17	$635.95	-$204.6
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 53.5¢	$321	$363	+$42
CM cm2897CTR	Jetsavg 41¢	$744.15	$952.88	+$208.73	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 43.7¢	$523.48	$772.53	+$249.05	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Chiefsavg 48¢	$329.71	$566.81	+$237.1	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 48¢	$285.88	$381.17	+$95.29
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 8.5¢	$43.83	$185.64	+$141.81
MA MadridTime	Chiefsavg 48¢	$273.93	$365.24	+$91.31	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 37¢	$106.34	$107.91	+$1.57	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Jetsavg 47.5¢	$171.08	$106.18	-$64.89	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
PA Pan9X	Chiefsavg 53.8¢	$122.58	$54.08	-$3.89	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Jetsavg 59¢	$59	$35.5	-$23.5	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Jetsavg 55¢	$11.1	$5.05	-$1.05	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Jetsavg 67¢	$5.36	$2.8	-$2.56	53% 3744-3342 (7086)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$5,399.07

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$5,638.31

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$890.87

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

biying88888CTR

Jets

Invested

$4,004.27

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$640.45

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

Anon455

Chiefs

Invested

$1,803.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$56.87

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

6512395314597884

Chiefs

Invested

$1,265.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$80.92

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$1,276.3

Value

$998.95

PnL

-$162.6

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Jets$838.1752.1¢-$204.6

Chiefs$32153.5¢+$42

cm2897CTR

Jets

Invested

$744.15

Value

$952.88

PnL

+$208.73

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$523.48

Value

$772.53

PnL

+$249.05

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

VenusianARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$329.71

Value

$566.81

PnL

+$237.1

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Both legs:

Chiefs$285.8848¢+$95.29

Jets$43.838.5¢+$141.81

MadridTime

Chiefs

Invested

$273.93

Value

$365.24

PnL

+$91.31

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$106.34

Value

$107.91

PnL

+$1.57

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Jets

Invested

$171.08

Value

$106.18

PnL

-$64.89

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

Pan9X

Chiefs

Invested

$122.58

Value

$54.08

PnL

-$3.89

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$59

Value

$35.5

PnL

-$23.5

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$11.1

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$1.05

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$5.36

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$2.56

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Research grade

AvoidJets at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

8 of 14 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Chiefs 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chiefs) and the top 1000 (11 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleJets 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrJets 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.