Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (43%) · Chiefs at 81¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs81¢Jets19¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 43%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 81¢

+25% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs81%

Jets19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs6 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares10,773

Combined PnL+$364.54

Jets8 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares14,391

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Chiefs — 43%Jets — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Chiefsavg 59.6¢	$4.4K	$5.4K	+$1.0K	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 33.7¢	$3.8K	$2.4K	$-1.4K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Chiefsavg 72.6¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$718.17	54% 1452-1257 (2709)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 58.3¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$105.12	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 58.3¢	$889.29	$891.95	+$2.67
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 48.6¢	$741.7	$633.91	-$107.79
AN Anon455	Chiefsavg 74.5¢	$916.87	$972.49	+$55.62	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
BI biying88888CTR	Jetsavg 50¢	$1.1K	$874.93	-$232.58	48% 233-252 (485)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Chiefsavg 62¢	$500	$302.5	-$7.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
dips.CTR	Jetsavg 55¢	$268.95	$144.26	-$124.7	46% 12092-14003 (26095)
VE Venusian	Chiefsavg 48.7¢	$156.65	$94.77	+$18.51	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jetsavg 55¢	$110	$56.43	-$39.07	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Jetsavg 48¢	$111.4	$55.7	+$2.23	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 48¢	$26.72	$33.69	+$6.96
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 48¢	$26.73	$22	-$4.74
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Jetsavg 52¢	$133.17	$52.6	-$16.65	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Jetsavg 55¢	$55	$41.5	-$13.5	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 43.8¢	$18.64	$15.09	+$11.17	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Jetsavg 30¢	$2.61	$2.82	+$0.21	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Jetsavg 55¢	$3.3	$1.77	-$1.53	53% 3744-3342 (7086)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$4,353.17

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$3,812.31

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Chiefs

Invested

$2,005.44

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$718.17

Record

54%

1452-1257 (2709)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$1,630.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$105.12

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Chiefs$889.2958.3¢+$2.67

Jets$741.748.6¢-$107.79

Anon455

Chiefs

Invested

$916.87

Value

$972.49

PnL

+$55.62

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

biying88888CTR

Jets

Invested

$1,107.5

Value

$874.93

PnL

-$232.58

Record

48%

233-252 (485)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Chiefs

Invested

$500

Value

$302.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

dips.CTR

Jets

Invested

$268.95

Value

$144.26

PnL

-$124.7

Record

46%

12092-14003 (26095)

Venusian

Chiefs

Invested

$156.65

Value

$94.77

PnL

+$18.51

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

38791873984189CTR

Jets

Invested

$110

Value

$56.43

PnL

-$39.07

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Jets

Invested

$111.4

Value

$55.7

PnL

+$2.23

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Both legs:

Chiefs$26.7248¢+$6.96

Jets$26.7348¢-$4.74

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Jets

Invested

$133.17

Value

$52.6

PnL

-$16.65

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

cm2897CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$55

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$13.5

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$18.64

Value

$15.09

PnL

+$11.17

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.21

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$3.3

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$1.53

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

6 of 14 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.