Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (75%) · Chiefs at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 8

Chiefs99¢Jets1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 75%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

$82.68

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 98.6¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs99%

Jets1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs9 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares4,112

Combined PnL+$279.81

Jets3 traders

Total Value$223.21

Total Shares2,931

Combined PnL-$197.13

Chiefs — 75%Jets — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChiefs 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Chiefsavg 87¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$67.41	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 62.6¢	$376.22	$513.86	+$137.64	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Chiefsavg 86¢	$430	$462.5	+$32.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Chiefsavg 70.1¢	$375.89	$394.37	+$18.48	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189	Chiefsavg 77.5¢	$387.99	$350.53	-$27.37	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
RN1CTR	Jetsavg 14¢	$399.2	$214.58	-$184.62	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
65 6512395314597884	Chiefsavg 63¢	$126	$175	+$49	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Chiefsavg 77¢	$16.17	$16.61	+$0.44	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
US User7429<$100	Chiefsavg 80¢	$9.6	$10.74	+$1.14	56% 10311-8123 (18434)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jetsavg 31.4¢	$23.56	$8.1	-$11.69	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Chiefsavg 64¢	$5	$3.78	+$0.58	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jetsavg 27¢	$1.35	$0.53	-$0.83	48% 2117-2339 (4456)

Anon455

Chiefs

Invested

$1,675.68

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$67.41

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$376.22

Value

$513.86

PnL

+$137.64

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Chiefs

Invested

$430

Value

$462.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Chiefs

Invested

$375.89

Value

$394.37

PnL

+$18.48

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189

Chiefs

Invested

$387.99

Value

$350.53

PnL

-$27.37

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

RN1CTR

Jets

Invested

$399.2

Value

$214.58

PnL

-$184.62

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

6512395314597884

Chiefs

Invested

$126

Value

$175

PnL

+$49

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

BoomLaLa<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$16.17

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$0.44

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

User7429<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.74

PnL

+$1.14

Record

56%

10311-8123 (18434)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$23.56

Value

$8.1

PnL

-$11.69

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Chiefs

Invested

Value

$3.78

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.83

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrChiefs 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.