Giants vs. Eagles: O/U 28.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 60¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

-$578.65

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 59.5¢

-18% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares8,036

Combined PnL-$875.68

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares6,623

Combined PnL+$297.03

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 69¢	$3.5K	$3.1K	-$424.04	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 79.7¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$425.88	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 46¢	$925.37	$1.2K	+$278.07	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$499.65	$646.29	+$146.64
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.9¢	$425.72	$557.15	+$131.43
RN1CTR	Underavg 31¢	$768.8	$1.0K	+$235.6	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 67¢	$335	$297.5	-$37.5	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 31¢	$124	$162	+$38	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 20¢	$121.34	$143.4	+$22.06	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100	Overavg 72¢	$61.8	$73.39	+$11.59	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 20.9¢	$81.35	$66.77	-$14.58	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$20	$38	+$18	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 80¢	$30	$28.05	+$0.15	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$28.68	$26.63	-$2.05	47% 2072-2311 (4383)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over

Invested

$3,532.97

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$424.04

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$2,508.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$425.88

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$925.37

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$278.07

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Over$499.6546¢+$146.64

Under$425.7230.9¢+$131.43

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$768.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$235.6

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$335

Value

$297.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$124

Value

$162

PnL

+$38

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$121.34

Value

$143.4

PnL

+$22.06

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465<$100

Over

Invested

$61.8

Value

$73.39

PnL

+$11.59

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$81.35

Value

$66.77

PnL

-$14.58

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$38

PnL

+$18

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$30

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.68

Value

$26.63

PnL

-$2.05

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.