Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (66%). 8 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Patriots vs. Lions: O/U 46.5

8 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 34¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 15

Over34¢Under66¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 34¢

-37% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 21 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over34%

Under66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$14.1K

Total Shares33,673

Combined PnL$-4.0K

Under13 traders

Total Value$15.2K

Total Shares28,622

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 50.5¢	$12.2K	$8.6K	$-3.6K	59% 1182-828 (2010)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$6.7K	$6.2K	-$589.61	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.4¢	$2.3K	$3.2K	+$855.28
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.2¢	$4.4K	$3.0K	$-1.4K
ET ethanaz	Underavg 44¢	$4.1K	$5.9K	+$1.8K	46% 389-459 (848)
CM cm2897	Underavg 61.6¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$167.97	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
MR MrClaude11CTR	Overavg 64¢	$3.4K	$3.6K	+$212.2	— 2-9 (11)
PU purplegatto	Underavg 36¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$577.5	68% 2677-1265 (3942)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 48.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$109.1	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.3¢	$806.51	$1.1K	+$269.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$503.66	$346.88	-$160.6
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 38¢	$978.88	$1.1K	+$141.68	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$3.6K	$980.78	-$295.75	49% 482-498 (980)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$878.91	$533.64	-$451.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$344.56	$447.15	+$156.15
BI biying88888	Underavg 57¢	$729.6	$825.6	+$96	44% 244-314 (558)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 37.4¢	$534.43	$803.64	+$272.58	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 64¢	$1.2K	$689.06	-$553.19	69% 1738-776 (2514)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 45.9¢	$607.05	$614.32	+$7.27	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
SM smithagent	Underavg 48¢	$288	$387	+$99	46% 877-1027 (1904)
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$412.94	$382.49	-$30.45	77% 271-81 (352)
OD OddstormCTR	Overavg 61¢	$340.03	$362.32	+$22.3	35% 138-251 (389)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58.3¢	$369.04	$358.67	-$10.37	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
dips.	Underavg 48¢	$234.72	$315.41	+$80.69	48% 1300-1386 (2686)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$252.08	$130.39	-$4.95	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$88.1	$95.14	+$12.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.2¢	$49.27	$35.25	-$17.34
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Overavg 43.1¢	$94.54	$89.59	-$4.95	51% 568-545 (1113)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.1¢	$77.3	$63.7	-$13.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$17.24	$25.89	+$8.65
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 48¢	$48.76	$57.4	+$8.64	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 59.3¢	$92.83	$55.55	-$37.28	34% 465-896 (1361)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 60.7¢	$51.66	$45.71	-$5.95	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 36¢	$25.76	$22.9	-$2.86	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 47¢	$16.07	$19.66	+$3.59	37% 1336-2230 (3566)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$12,210.85

Value

$8.6K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,741.34

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$589.61

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Under$2,312.6146.4¢+$855.28

Over$4,428.7354.2¢$-1.4K

ethanaz

Under

Invested

$4,055.24

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

46%

389-459 (848)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$3,508.73

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$167.97

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

MrClaude11CTR

Over

Invested

$3,395.21

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$212.2

Record

—

2-9 (11)

purplegatto

Under

Invested

$2,079

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$577.5

Record

68%

2677-1265 (3942)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,330.78

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$109.1

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Both legs:

Under$806.5148.3¢+$269.69

Over$503.6651.5¢-$160.6

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$978.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$141.68

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,643.88

Value

$980.78

PnL

-$295.75

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

Both legs:

Over$878.9156¢-$451.9

Under$344.5650.9¢+$156.15

biying88888

Under

Invested

$729.6

Value

$825.6

PnL

+$96

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$534.43

Value

$803.64

PnL

+$272.58

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$1,242.24

Value

$689.06

PnL

-$553.19

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$607.05

Value

$614.32

PnL

+$7.27

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

smithagent

Under

Invested

$288

Value

$387

PnL

+$99

Record

46%

877-1027 (1904)

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$412.94

Value

$382.49

PnL

-$30.45

Record

77%

271-81 (352)

OddstormCTR

Over

Invested

$340.03

Value

$362.32

PnL

+$22.3

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$369.04

Value

$358.67

PnL

-$10.37

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

dips.

Under

Invested

$234.72

Value

$315.41

PnL

+$80.69

Record

48%

1300-1386 (2686)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$252.08

Value

$130.39

PnL

-$4.95

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Under$88.156¢+$12.39

Over$49.2755.2¢-$17.34

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$94.54

Value

$89.59

PnL

-$4.95

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Both legs:

Over$77.343.1¢-$13.6

Under$17.2443¢+$8.65

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$48.76

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$8.64

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.83

Value

$55.55

PnL

-$37.28

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.66

Value

$45.71

PnL

-$5.95

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$25.76

Value

$22.9

PnL

-$2.86

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$16.07

Value

$19.66

PnL

+$3.59

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 21 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 66%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.