Spread: Lions (-9.5)

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (45%) · Lions at 89¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 15

Lions89¢Patriots11¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 45%

Total Value

$15.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.6K

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 88.5¢

+74% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions89%

Patriots12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions9 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares18,203

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Patriots11 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares17,969

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Lions — 45%Patriots — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 56.1¢	$3.0K	$4.7K	+$1.7K	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
PR primm	Lionsavg 46.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$218.5	59% 1182-828 (2010)
AN Anon455	Lionsavg 48¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$318.59	49% 482-498 (980)
RN1	Lionsavg 53.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$266.04	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
one8tyfiveCTR	Patriotsavg 45.4¢	$2.6K	$1.0K	$-1.6K	58% 18-13 (31)
CM cm2897CTR	Patriotsavg 47.6¢	$2.9K	$695.44	$-2.2K	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR	Patriotsavg 54.3¢	$1.4K	$655.83	-$740.11	29% 96-237 (333)
38 38791873984189	Lionsavg 46.7¢	$516.46	$348.82	+$44.23	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Patriotsavg 38.3¢	$806.83	$336.2	+$25.53	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
tradecraft	Lionsavg 53.8¢	$198.78	$295.41	+$96.63	34% 465-896 (1361)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 38.8¢	$1.4K	$181.56	-$669.98	51% 568-545 (1113)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Patriotsavg 38.9¢	$182.54	$175.76	-$6.78	50% 2841-2879 (5720)
OD OddstormCTR	Patriotsavg 74¢	$173.9	$173.9	+$0	35% 138-251 (389)
TimeTravelerCTR	Patriotsavg 50.5¢	$101	$92	-$9	24% 29-90 (119)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Lionsavg 50¢	$50	$80.5	+$30.5	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 51.1¢	$55.24	$56.7	+$1.46	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
NO NotJump<$100	Lionsavg 54¢	$56.38	$33.55	-$1.05	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 33.7¢	$58.23	$19.87	-$38.36	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 47.5¢	$35.2	$19.64	-$15.56	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 48¢	$26.47	$14.61	-$11.86	38% 1342-2205 (3547)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$2,981.9

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

primm

Lions

Invested

$2,055.64

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$218.5

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

Anon455

Lions

Invested

$1,933.8

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$318.59

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

RN1

Lions

Invested

$1,678.94

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$266.04

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

one8tyfiveCTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,635.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

cm2897CTR

Patriots

Invested

$2,878.17

Value

$695.44

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,395.94

Value

$655.83

PnL

-$740.11

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

38791873984189

Lions

Invested

$516.46

Value

$348.82

PnL

+$44.23

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Patriots

Invested

$806.83

Value

$336.2

PnL

+$25.53

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

tradecraft

Lions

Invested

$198.78

Value

$295.41

PnL

+$96.63

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,400.8

Value

$181.56

PnL

-$669.98

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Patriots

Invested

$182.54

Value

$175.76

PnL

-$6.78

Record

50%

2841-2879 (5720)

OddstormCTR

Patriots

Invested

$173.9

Value

$173.9

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

TimeTravelerCTR

Patriots

Invested

$101

Value

$92

PnL

-$9

Record

24%

29-90 (119)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Lions

Invested

$50

Value

$80.5

PnL

+$30.5

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$55.24

Value

$56.7

PnL

+$1.46

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

NotJump<$100

Lions

Invested

$56.38

Value

$33.55

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$58.23

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$38.36

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

LimousinCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$35.2

Value

$19.64

PnL

-$15.56

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

VenusianCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$26.47

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$11.86

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.