Spread: Lions (-6.5)

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (39%) · Lions at 92¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Lions92¢Patriots8¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 39%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$251.35

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 91.5¢

+53% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lions92%

Patriots9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions7 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares10,147

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Patriots11 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares11,158

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Lions — 39%Patriots — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO JokerTheClown	Lionsavg 64.6¢	$2.9K	$4.2K	+$1.2K	9% 20-212 (232)
PR primm	Lionsavg 54¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$533.95	59% 1182-828 (2010)
AN Anon455CTR	Patriotsavg 36¢	$720	$750	+$30	49% 482-498 (980)
RN1CTR	Patriotsavg 34.2¢	$824.49	$663.53	-$160.96	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
RO roldy	Lionsavg 65.3¢	$487.36	$630.37	+$143.01	47% 20-23 (43)
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 54¢	$878.14	$577.61	-$300.53	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Patriotsavg 46¢	$1.7K	$540.75	$-1.1K	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 49¢	$332.55	$335.95	+$3.39	51% 568-545 (1113)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Patriotsavg 46.2¢	$117.16	$105.69	-$11.47	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 61.3¢	$460.57	$78.75	+$5.5	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Lionsavg 65.5¢	$53.85	$73.17	+$19.32	46% 631-739 (1370)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 64¢	$58.99	$59.91	+$0.92	69% 1738-776 (2514)
NO NotJump<$100	Lionsavg 87¢	$68.71	$51.19	-$16.52	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Patriotsavg 45.4¢	$128.88	$42.56	-$86.32	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 36.7¢	$50.9	$29.98	-$0.8	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 43.3¢	$36.29	$14.68	-$21.61	34% 465-896 (1361)
VE Venusian<$100	Lionsavg 35¢	$2.66	$6.27	+$3.61	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 13¢	$5.98	$3.91	-$2.07	49% 1233-1278 (2511)

JokerTheClown

Lions

Invested

$2,944.88

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

20-212 (232)

primm

Lions

Invested

$2,513.1

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$533.95

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

Anon455CTR

Patriots

Invested

$720

Value

$750

PnL

+$30

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

RN1CTR

Patriots

Invested

$824.49

Value

$663.53

PnL

-$160.96

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

roldy

Lions

Invested

$487.36

Value

$630.37

PnL

+$143.01

Record

47%

20-23 (43)

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$878.14

Value

$577.61

PnL

-$300.53

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,658.3

Value

$540.75

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$332.55

Value

$335.95

PnL

+$3.39

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

topdogbigboiCTR

Patriots

Invested

$117.16

Value

$105.69

PnL

-$11.47

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$460.57

Value

$78.75

PnL

+$5.5

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Lions

Invested

$53.85

Value

$73.17

PnL

+$19.32

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$58.99

Value

$59.91

PnL

+$0.92

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

NotJump<$100

Lions

Invested

$68.71

Value

$51.19

PnL

-$16.52

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

6512395314597884CTR

Patriots

Invested

$128.88

Value

$42.56

PnL

-$86.32

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$50.9

Value

$29.98

PnL

-$0.8

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$36.29

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$21.61

Record

34%

465-896 (1361)

Venusian<$100

Lions

Invested

$2.66

Value

$6.27

PnL

+$3.61

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

cm2897CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$5.98

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$2.07

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.