Spread: Lions (-17.5)

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (75%) · Lions at 89¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 15

Lions89¢Patriots11¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 75%

Total Value

$21.9K

Combined PnL

$448.35

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 88.5¢

+70% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions89%

Patriots12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions12 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares20,602

Combined PnL+$7.0K

Patriots4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares21,920

Combined PnL$-6.5K

Lions — 75%Patriots — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLions 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Lionsavg 46¢	$3.3K	$6.4K	+$3.1K	51% 360-345 (705)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Lionsavg 53¢	$2.6K	$4.3K	+$1.7K	65% 22-12 (34)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Lionsavg 51¢	$2.3K	$3.4K	+$1.1K	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 47.8¢	$6.5K	$2.7K	$-3.0K	51% 568-545 (1113)
AN Anon455	Lionsavg 52.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$458.76	49% 482-499 (981)
BI big8betzCTR	Patriotsavg 48.4¢	$4.4K	$1.0K	$-3.3K	52% 84-79 (163)
38 38791873984189	Lionsavg 73.4¢	$748.4	$912.9	+$164.5	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Lionsavg 75¢	$407.88	$481.44	+$73.56	58% 4006-2920 (6926)
PR primmCTR	Patriotsavg 33.4¢	$581.5	$418.18	-$163.33	59% 1182-828 (2010)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 53.9¢	$1.3K	$284.01	+$315.91	55% 1969-1643 (3612)
dips.	Lionsavg 70.9¢	$162.96	$203.55	+$40.59	48% 1307-1398 (2705)
CM cm2897	Lionsavg 66¢	$166.97	$126.68	+$6.29	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
NO NotJump	Lionsavg 55.4¢	$134.91	$52.89	+$0.71	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
VE Venusian<$100	Lionsavg 49¢	$26.46	$47.79	+$21.33	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 45.7¢	$13.45	$6.26	-$2.97	34% 476-910 (1386)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lionsavg 65¢	$1.86	$2.17	+$0.31	39% 1579-2471 (4050)

bands1

Lions

Invested

$3,311.54

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

51%

360-345 (705)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Lions

Invested

$2,580.57

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

22-12 (34)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Lions

Invested

$2,276.32

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$6,452.27

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

Anon455

Lions

Invested

$1,157.83

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$458.76

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

big8betzCTR

Patriots

Invested

$4,367.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

52%

84-79 (163)

38791873984189

Lions

Invested

$748.4

Value

$912.9

PnL

+$164.5

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Lions

Invested

$407.88

Value

$481.44

PnL

+$73.56

Record

58%

4006-2920 (6926)

primmCTR

Patriots

Invested

$581.5

Value

$418.18

PnL

-$163.33

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$1,280.76

Value

$284.01

PnL

+$315.91

Record

55%

1969-1643 (3612)

dips.

Lions

Invested

$162.96

Value

$203.55

PnL

+$40.59

Record

48%

1307-1398 (2705)

cm2897

Lions

Invested

$166.97

Value

$126.68

PnL

+$6.29

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

NotJump

Lions

Invested

$134.91

Value

$52.89

PnL

+$0.71

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Venusian<$100

Lions

Invested

$26.46

Value

$47.79

PnL

+$21.33

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$13.45

Value

$6.26

PnL

-$2.97

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lions

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.17

PnL

+$0.31

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLions 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLions 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Lions 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.