Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (72%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-16.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (67%) · Patriots at 28¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Lions72¢Patriots28¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 67%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$155.99

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 28.5¢

-47% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions72%

Patriots28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions3 traders

Total Value$962.53

Total Shares1,600

Combined PnL+$246.23

Patriots6 traders

Total Value$846.48

Total Shares1,729

Combined PnL-$90.24

Lions — 33%Patriots — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Lionsavg 44.9¢	$712.77	$961.04	+$248.27	51% 568-545 (1113)
BI biying88888CTR	Patriotsavg 54¢	$777.06	$654.75	-$122.31	44% 244-314 (558)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Patriotsavg 66¢	$98.67	$130.07	+$31.39	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 44.1¢	$32.37	$31.21	-$1.16	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
RN1CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 39¢	$23.1	$23.4	+$0.3	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.35	+$0.95	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 68¢	$2.13	$2.72	+$0.59	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
PR primm<$100	Lionsavg 31¢	$3.1	$1.3	-$1.8	59% 1182-828 (2010)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 30¢	$0.43	$0.19	-$0.24	50% 2177-2197 (4374)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Lions

Invested

$712.77

Value

$961.04

PnL

+$248.27

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

biying88888CTR

Patriots

Invested

$777.06

Value

$654.75

PnL

-$122.31

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

6512395314597884CTR

Patriots

Invested

$98.67

Value

$130.07

PnL

+$31.39

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$32.37

Value

$31.21

PnL

-$1.16

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

RN1CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$23.1

Value

$23.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.95

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$2.13

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.59

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

primm<$100

Lions

Invested

$3.1

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$1.8

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.24

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.