Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Patriots, while the market favors Lions (86%). 10 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lions (-10.5)

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Patriots (63%) · Patriots at 14¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 15

Lions86¢Patriots14¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Patriots

Consensus Traders

Patriots 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 14.5¢

-72% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions86%

Patriots14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Patriots10 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares9,276

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Lions6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares9,453

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Patriots — 63%Lions — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Lionsavg 49¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$298.98	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$494.66
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 41.1¢	$758.85	$563.16	-$195.69
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Patriotsavg 51.1¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	$-2.3K	24% 13-41 (54)
VE Venusian	Lionsavg 49.1¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$550.5	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
PR primm	Lionsavg 43¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$169.2	59% 1182-828 (2010)
LI LightParadox	Lionsavg 49¢	$992.25	$1.4K	+$435.38	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
65 6512395314597884	Lionsavg 47.8¢	$391.46	$585.06	+$193.61	50% 4044-4051 (8095)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Lionsavg 48.6¢	$2.2K	$219.08	+$8.46	49% 482-498 (980)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 48.6¢	$140.72	$143.22	+$30.12
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 51¢	$76.61	$75.86	-$21.65
38 38791873984189CTR	Patriotsavg 50.9¢	$181.57	$180.35	-$1.22	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Lionsavg 49¢	$463.65	$151.24	+$36.2	55% 1968-1643 (3611)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$94.46	-$579.26	51% 568-545 (1113)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Lionsavg 73¢	$123.34	$77.74	-$21.8	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
└ Lions leg	Lionsavg 73¢	$53.09	$52.73	+$2.39
└ Patriots leg	Patriotsavg 52¢	$47.29	$25.01	-$24.18
CM cm2897<$100	Lionsavg 47¢	$23.5	$38.5	+$15	49% 1233-1278 (2511)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 51¢	$54.55	$23	-$31.55	46% 631-739 (1370)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 50.5¢	$45.66	$18.13	-$3.55	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 50¢	$12.5	$7.12	-$5.38	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 50¢	$4.4	$6.77	+$2.37	46% 972-1163 (2135)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 51.1¢	$4.39	$4.42	+$0.03	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Patriotsavg 78¢	$3.95	$3.9	-$0.05	62% 268-161 (429)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Patriotsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.53	-$0.02	58% 3986-2906 (6892)

RN1ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$1,941.22

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$298.98

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Lions$1,182.3749¢+$494.66

Patriots$758.8541.1¢-$195.69

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Patriots

Invested

$4,144.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

24%

13-41 (54)

Venusian

Lions

Invested

$1,262.39

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$550.5

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

primm

Lions

Invested

$1,636.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$169.2

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

LightParadox

Lions

Invested

$992.25

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$435.38

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

6512395314597884

Lions

Invested

$391.46

Value

$585.06

PnL

+$193.61

Record

50%

4044-4051 (8095)

Anon455ARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$2,231.94

Value

$219.08

PnL

+$8.46

Record

49%

482-498 (980)

Both legs:

Lions$140.7248.6¢+$30.12

Patriots$76.6151¢-$21.65

38791873984189CTR

Patriots

Invested

$181.57

Value

$180.35

PnL

-$1.22

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Lions

Invested

$463.65

Value

$151.24

PnL

+$36.2

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$1,586.51

Value

$94.46

PnL

-$579.26

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

NotJumpARB<$100

Lions

Invested

$123.34

Value

$77.74

PnL

-$21.8

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Both legs:

Lions$53.0973¢+$2.39

Patriots$47.2952¢-$24.18

cm2897<$100

Lions

Invested

$23.5

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

1233-1278 (2511)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$54.55

Value

$23

PnL

-$31.55

Record

46%

631-739 (1370)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$45.66

Value

$18.13

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$12.5

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$5.38

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

lryyyCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$4.4

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$2.37

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

268-161 (429)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Patriots

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

Research grade

AvoidPatriots at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Patriots

10 of 16 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Lions 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Patriots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.