Spread: Patriots (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (78%) · Lions at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Patriots3¢Lions97¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 78%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$210.51

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 97¢

+43% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Patriots3%

Lions97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lions7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,392

Combined PnL+$225.86

Patriots2 traders

Total Value$702.17

Total Shares2,230

Combined PnL-$15.35

Lions — 78%Patriots — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Lionsavg 75¢	$750	$964.5	+$214.5	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
fyrsken	Lionsavg 62¢	$700	$705.65	+$5.65	49% 67-71 (138)
TA takeormakeCTR	Patriotsavg 38¢	$455.25	$449.26	-$5.99	57% 3682-2767 (6449)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Patriotsavg 25.4¢	$262.26	$252.9	-$9.35	51% 568-545 (1113)
RN1<$100	Lionsavg 60¢	$61.07	$63.61	+$2.54	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Lionsavg 60¢	$58.8	$61.25	+$2.45	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
NO NotJump<$100	Lionsavg 89¢	$28.7	$28.86	+$0.16	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
PA Pan9X<$100	Lionsavg 60¢	$12	$12.5	+$0.5	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Lionsavg 84¢	$9.45	$9.51	+$0.06	55% 1968-1643 (3611)

38791873984189

Lions

Invested

$750

Value

$964.5

PnL

+$214.5

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

fyrsken

Lions

Invested

$700

Value

$705.65

PnL

+$5.65

Record

49%

67-71 (138)

takeormakeCTR

Patriots

Invested

$455.25

Value

$449.26

PnL

-$5.99

Record

57%

3682-2767 (6449)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Patriots

Invested

$262.26

Value

$252.9

PnL

-$9.35

Record

51%

568-545 (1113)

RN1<$100

Lions

Invested

$61.07

Value

$63.61

PnL

+$2.54

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

topdogbigboi<$100

Lions

Invested

$58.8

Value

$61.25

PnL

+$2.45

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

NotJump<$100

Lions

Invested

$28.7

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

Pan9X<$100

Lions

Invested

$12

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Lions

Invested

$9.45

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

1968-1643 (3611)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.