Vikings vs. Packers: O/U 44.5

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 62¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.7K

Combined PnL

-$35.09

Smart Money Entry

59¢ → 62¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,659

Combined PnL+$263.85

Over10 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares9,265

Combined PnL-$298.93

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 59% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Underavg 58.7¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$258.87	59% 1193-836 (2029)
RN1CTR	Overavg 41¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$202.11	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 42¢	$833.14	$743.88	-$89.26	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 39.7¢	$394.24	$381.26	-$12.98	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.7¢	$256.04	$244.86	-$11.18
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.8¢	$138.2	$136.4	-$1.8
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 62¢	$127.15	$128.18	+$1.03	50% 663-662 (1325)
SU suitcase6628	Underavg 58¢	$110.2	$117.8	+$7.6	66% 793-417 (1210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 62.9¢	$101.86	$98.15	-$3.71	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 40.9¢	$177.56	$84.57	-$0.27	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 62.3¢	$64.74	$64.48	-$0.26	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 63.5¢	$65.28	$63.75	-$1.52	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$58.61	$57.84	-$0.77	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$34.62	$36.06	+$1.44	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$37.72	$33.33	-$4.39	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 56.6¢	$23.72	$25.99	+$2.27	51% 579-567 (1146)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$23.54	$21.66	-$1.88	49% 497-511 (1008)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$22.24	$20.61	-$1.63	47% 507-561 (1068)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 61¢	$12.2	$12.4	+$0.2	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Underavg 66.8¢	$8.69	$8.06	-$0.63	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$5.9	$5.9	-$0	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 39¢	$2.34	$2.28	-$0.06	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

primm

Under

Invested

$4,014.07

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$258.87

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,764.21

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$202.11

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$833.14

Value

$743.88

PnL

-$89.26

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$394.24

Value

$381.26

PnL

-$12.98

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Over$256.0439.7¢-$11.18

Under$138.262.8¢-$1.8

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$127.15

Value

$128.18

PnL

+$1.03

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

suitcase6628

Under

Invested

$110.2

Value

$117.8

PnL

+$7.6

Record

66%

793-417 (1210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$101.86

Value

$98.15

PnL

-$3.71

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$177.56

Value

$84.57

PnL

-$0.27

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$64.74

Value

$64.48

PnL

-$0.26

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$65.28

Value

$63.75

PnL

-$1.52

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58.61

Value

$57.84

PnL

-$0.77

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.62

Value

$36.06

PnL

+$1.44

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$37.72

Value

$33.33

PnL

-$4.39

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$23.72

Value

$25.99

PnL

+$2.27

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.54

Value

$21.66

PnL

-$1.88

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.24

Value

$20.61

PnL

-$1.63

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Under

Invested

$8.69

Value

$8.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.34

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-47 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 59% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.