Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (78%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Packers (-1.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (54%) · Packers at 23¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Packers23¢Vikings77¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 54%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$465.29

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 22.5¢

-58% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Packers23%

Vikings78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,598

Combined PnL+$292.96

Packers7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,895

Combined PnL-$758.25

Vikings — 46%Packers — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPackers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Vikingsavg 45¢	$525.93	$771.36	+$245.43	51% 3937-3725 (7662)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 54¢	$1.1K	$680	-$400	49% 486-502 (988)
CO cocococococoCTR	Packersavg 55¢	$611.05	$389.66	-$221.39	30% 19-44 (63)
BI biying88888	Vikingsavg 60¢	$96	$123.2	+$27.2	44% 244-314 (558)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 54¢	$140.4	$88.4	-$52	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
NO NotJump<$100	Vikingsavg 48.5¢	$48.5	$66	+$17.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Vikingsavg 66¢	$62.16	$62.16	+$0	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Packersavg 40¢	$64	$54.4	-$9.6	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Vikingsavg 65¢	$43.15	$43.82	+$0.66	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Packersavg 51.5¢	$77.25	$34.5	-$42.75	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Packersavg 35.1¢	$47.84	$31.37	-$16.47	29% 96-237 (333)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 54.6¢	$42.57	$26.52	-$16.05	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Vikingsavg 40¢	$3.33	$5.5	+$2.17	56% 3922-3103 (7025)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Vikings

Invested

$525.93

Value

$771.36

PnL

+$245.43

Record

51%

3937-3725 (7662)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,080

Value

$680

PnL

-$400

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

cocococococoCTR

Packers

Invested

$611.05

Value

$389.66

PnL

-$221.39

Record

30%

19-44 (63)

biying88888

Vikings

Invested

$96

Value

$123.2

PnL

+$27.2

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$140.4

Value

$88.4

PnL

-$52

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

NotJump<$100

Vikings

Invested

$48.5

Value

$66

PnL

+$17.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Vikings

Invested

$62.16

Value

$62.16

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$64

Value

$54.4

PnL

-$9.6

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

topdogbigboi<$100

Vikings

Invested

$43.15

Value

$43.82

PnL

+$0.66

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$77.25

Value

$34.5

PnL

-$42.75

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$47.84

Value

$31.37

PnL

-$16.47

Record

29%

96-237 (333)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$42.57

Value

$26.52

PnL

-$16.05

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Vikings

Invested

$3.33

Value

$5.5

PnL

+$2.17

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Research grade

AvoidPackers at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrPackers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.