Spread: Vikings (-9.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (38%) · Vikings at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings>99¢Packers<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

32.5¢ → 99.6¢

+206% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings100%

Packers0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings5 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares3,994

Combined PnL+$2.7K

Packers8 traders

Total Value$17.08

Total Shares1,738

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Vikings — 38%Packers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 31.9¢	$1.2K	$3.9K	+$2.6K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Vikingsavg 56.5¢	$31.05	$54.78	+$23.73	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
RN1ARB<$100	Packersavg 69¢	$1.7K	$49.61	$-1.7K	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 69¢	$1.7K	$24.86	$-1.7K
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 50¢	$12.5	$24.75	+$12.25
PA Pan9X<$100	Vikingsavg 81.4¢	$53.96	$20.39	-$15.48	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 56.1¢	$663.97	$11.84	-$652.13	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
VE Venusian<$100	Vikingsavg 49¢	$4.51	$9.17	+$4.66	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Vikingsavg 60¢	$4	$6.59	+$2.6	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 68¢	$792.12	$2.46	-$295.95	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
dips.CTR<$100	Packersavg 6¢	$17.82	$1.19	-$16.63	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 66.6¢	$66.6	$1	-$65.6	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Packersavg 40.9¢	$23.16	$0.23	-$22.94	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Packersavg 1¢	$0.17	$0.17	+$0	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$5.15	$0.1	-$5.05	49% 497-511 (1008)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Packersavg 50¢	$12.5	$0.1	-$12.4	38% 1416-2272 (3688)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$1,243.36

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Vikings

Invested

$31.05

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$23.73

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

RN1ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$1,727.44

Value

$49.61

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Both legs:

Packers$1,714.9469¢$-1.7K

Vikings$12.550¢+$12.25

Pan9X<$100

Vikings

Invested

$53.96

Value

$20.39

PnL

-$15.48

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$663.97

Value

$11.84

PnL

-$652.13

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Venusian<$100

Vikings

Invested

$4.51

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$4.66

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

topdogbigboi<$100

Vikings

Invested

Value

$6.59

PnL

+$2.6

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$792.12

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$295.95

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

dips.CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$17.82

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$16.63

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$66.6

Value

PnL

-$65.6

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$23.16

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$22.94

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Anon455CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$5.15

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$5.05

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$12.5

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$12.4

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-40 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.