Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Vikings (60%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Vikings (-3.5)

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (77%) · Packers at 41¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings60¢Packers40¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 77%

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 40.5¢

-26% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings60%

Packers41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares11,333

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Packers10 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares12,709

Combined PnL+$496.61

Vikings — 23%Packers — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 45¢	$5.1K	$6.6K	+$1.5K	59% 1183-828 (2011)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 53¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$311.55	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 51.8¢	$2.3K	$2.6K	+$317.74	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Packersavg 66.9¢	$895.1	$789.61	-$105.49	51% 572-546 (1118)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 53.3¢	$378.35	$418.99	+$40.65	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 67¢	$335	$295	-$40	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 72¢	$207.36	$169.92	-$37.44	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Packersavg 52¢	$67.66	$76.78	+$9.11	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 55¢	$55	$59	+$4	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Packersavg 63.5¢	$40.61	$37.75	-$2.86	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Packersavg 72¢	$3.6	$2.95	-$0.65	63% 1984-1153 (3137)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Vikingsavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.05	-$0.4	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
AN Anon455<$100	Vikingsavg 32¢	$0.47	$0.6	+$0.13	49% 486-502 (988)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$5,098.91

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$2,747.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$311.55

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$2,271.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$317.74

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Packers

Invested

$895.1

Value

$789.61

PnL

-$105.49

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$378.35

Value

$418.99

PnL

+$40.65

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$335

Value

$295

PnL

-$40

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$207.36

Value

$169.92

PnL

-$37.44

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$67.66

Value

$76.78

PnL

+$9.11

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$55

Value

$59

PnL

+$4

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$40.61

Value

$37.75

PnL

-$2.86

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

RLWGCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$3.6

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.65

Record

63%

1984-1153 (3137)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Vikings

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.4

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Anon455<$100

Vikings

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Vikings 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleVikings 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.