Spread: Vikings (-17.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (38%) · Vikings at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings94¢Packers6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

40.3¢ → 93.8¢

+133% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings94%

Packers6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings3 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares7,359

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Packers5 traders

Total Value$564.87

Total Shares3,767

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Vikings — 38%Packers — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 40.3¢	$2.9K	$6.8K	+$3.9K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Packersavg 61.5¢	$1.0K	$329.53	-$597.97	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
CM cm2897	Vikingsavg 39¢	$48.29	$117.71	+$69.42	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 55¢	$1.1K	$100.04	$-1.0K	49% 497-511 (1008)
TA takeormakeCTR	Packersavg 74.5¢	$138.23	$96.85	-$41.38	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Packersavg 54.9¢	$79.39	$76.16	-$3.23	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 48.2¢	$35.83	$46.35	+$10.52
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 54.9¢	$43.56	$29.81	-$13.75
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Packersavg 60.6¢	$44.44	$37.42	-$7.02	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Vikingsavg 40.1¢	$17.17	$19.72	+$2.56	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$10.54	$1.02	-$9.51	50% 663-662 (1325)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$2,902.84

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Packers

Invested

$1,015.53

Value

$329.53

PnL

-$597.97

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

cm2897

Vikings

Invested

$48.29

Value

$117.71

PnL

+$69.42

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,111.73

Value

$100.04

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

takeormakeCTR

Packers

Invested

$138.23

Value

$96.85

PnL

-$41.38

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$79.39

Value

$76.16

PnL

-$3.23

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Both legs:

Vikings$35.8348.2¢+$10.52

Packers$43.5654.9¢-$13.75

NotJumpCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$44.44

Value

$37.42

PnL

-$7.02

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

topdogbigboi<$100

Vikings

Invested

$17.17

Value

$19.72

PnL

+$2.56

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$10.54

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$9.51

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrPackers 63% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000Packers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.0%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.