Spread: Vikings (-10.5)

8 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (47%) · Vikings at 71¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 15

Vikings71¢Packers29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.7K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 70.5¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

8 of 17 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings71%

Packers30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings8 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares21,463

Combined PnL+$5.0K

Packers9 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares19,609

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Vikings — 47%Packers — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vikingsavg 45.6¢	$7.6K	$11.9K	+$4.3K	59% 1193-836 (2029)
RN1CTR	Packersavg 52.3¢	$4.6K	$4.1K	-$534.4	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
AltMind	Vikingsavg 55¢	$2.3K	$3.0K	+$691.58	55% 32-26 (58)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Packersavg 50¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$154.56	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Packersavg 47.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$46.92	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Packersavg 46¢	$917.11	$585.26	-$295.56	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 46¢	$678.52	$456.92	-$273.24
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 81¢	$150.66	$128.34	-$22.32
AN Anon455CTR	Packersavg 57¢	$4.3K	$469.54	$-1.3K	49% 497-511 (1008)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Packersavg 36¢	$540	$465	-$75	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Vikingsavg 76¢	$380	$357.5	-$22.5	58% 4036-2957 (6993)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Packersavg 65¢	$105.5	$86.5	-$19	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 65¢	$65	$46	-$19
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 54¢	$40.5	$40.5	-$0
PA Pan9XCTR	Packersavg 52.2¢	$107.73	$53.23	-$42.52	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
LI LightParadox<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$26.46	$39.41	+$12.95	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
MA MadridTime<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$28.46	$32.64	+$4.18	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
CM cm2897CTR<$100	Packersavg 50¢	$56.1	$31.97	-$24.13	49% 1251-1295 (2546)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Packersavg 34.7¢	$29.31	$26.19	-$3.12	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
dips.CTR<$100	Packersavg 51¢	$39.78	$20.7	-$2.25	48% 1330-1423 (2753)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Vikingsavg 60¢	$9.4	$11.2	+$1.79	50% 663-662 (1325)
TA takeormake<$100	Vikingsavg 56¢	$6.86	$6.62	-$0.25	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
VE Venusian<$100	Vikingsavg 48¢	$3.84	$5.72	+$1.88	38% 1404-2275 (3679)

primm

Vikings

Invested

$7,580.7

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

RN1CTR

Packers

Invested

$4,648.4

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$534.4

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

AltMind

Vikings

Invested

$2,296.59

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$691.58

Record

55%

32-26 (58)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Packers

Invested

$1,944.47

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$154.56

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

6512395314597884CTR

Packers

Invested

$1,800.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$46.92

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$917.11

Value

$585.26

PnL

-$295.56

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Both legs:

Packers$678.5246¢-$273.24

Vikings$150.6681¢-$22.32

Anon455CTR

Packers

Invested

$4,269.58

Value

$469.54

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Packers

Invested

$540

Value

$465

PnL

-$75

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Vikings

Invested

$380

Value

$357.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

58%

4036-2957 (6993)

NotJumpARB<$100

Packers

Invested

$105.5

Value

$86.5

PnL

-$19

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

Both legs:

Invested

$107.73

Value

$53.23

PnL

-$42.52

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

LightParadox<$100

Vikings

Invested

$26.46

Value

$39.41

PnL

+$12.95

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

MadridTime<$100

Vikings

Invested

$28.46

Value

$32.64

PnL

+$4.18

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

cm2897CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$56.1

Value

$31.97

PnL

-$24.13

Record

49%

1251-1295 (2546)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$29.31

Value

$26.19

PnL

-$3.12

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

dips.CTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$39.78

Value

$20.7

PnL

-$2.25

Record

48%

1330-1423 (2753)

justaluckydude<$100

Vikings

Invested

$9.4

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$1.79

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

takeormake<$100

Vikings

Invested

$6.86

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.25

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Venusian<$100

Vikings

Invested

$3.84

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$1.88

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

8 of 17 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.