Spread: 49ers (-13.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold 49ers (64%) · 49ers at 99¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

49ers>99¢Raiders<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

49ers

Consensus Traders

49ers 64%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$5.3K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 99.1¢

+80% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

49ers99%

Raiders1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

49ers9 traders

Total Value$16.0K

Total Shares17,590

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Raiders5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,226

Combined PnL$-1.2K

49ers — 64%Raiders — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr49ers 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 100049ers 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	49ersavg 56.2¢	$7.5K	$12.5K	+$5.0K	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raidersavg 38.9¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$110.5	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	49ersavg 51.5¢	$592.59	$1.1K	+$505.86	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
FE ferrariChampions2026	49ersavg 50¢	$1.6K	$847.34	+$135.29	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
38 38791873984189	49ersavg 50.3¢	$687.1	$832.72	+$576.12	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
AN Anon455	49ersavg 56.6¢	$295.66	$498.01	+$202.35	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
PU purplegattoCTR	Raidersavg 62.9¢	$298.37	$249.48	-$48.89	49% 6675-6873 (13548)
BI biying88888	49ersavg 51¢	$102	$119	+$17	47% 242-270 (512)
betdgeCTR	Raidersavg 44¢	$1.1K	$87.5	$-1.0K	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	49ersavg 56.2¢	$39.89	$70.33	+$30.43	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Raidersavg 31¢	$44.79	$53.42	+$8.63	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
PA Pan9X	49ersavg 68¢	$108.62	$49.34	-$6.94	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
JU justaluckydude<$100	49ersavg 43¢	$48	$28.56	+$7.92	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Raidersavg 51.5¢	$56.7	$6.06	-$50.65	49% 2223-2352 (4575)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

49ers

Invested

$7,478.07

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

6512395314597884CTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,324.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$110.5

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

49ers

Invested

$592.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$505.86

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

ferrariChampions2026

49ers

Invested

$1,561.1

Value

$847.34

PnL

+$135.29

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

38791873984189

49ers

Invested

$687.1

Value

$832.72

PnL

+$576.12

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Anon455

49ers

Invested

$295.66

Value

$498.01

PnL

+$202.35

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

purplegattoCTR

Raiders

Invested

$298.37

Value

$249.48

PnL

-$48.89

Record

49%

6675-6873 (13548)

biying88888

49ers

Invested

$102

Value

$119

PnL

+$17

Record

47%

242-270 (512)

betdgeCTR

Raiders

Invested

$1,100

Value

$87.5

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

49ers

Invested

$39.89

Value

$70.33

PnL

+$30.43

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$44.79

Value

$53.42

PnL

+$8.63

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

Pan9X

49ers

Invested

$108.62

Value

$49.34

PnL

-$6.94

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

justaluckydude<$100

49ers

Invested

$48

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$7.92

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

LimousinCTR<$100

Raiders

Invested

$56.7

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$50.65

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

Research grade

Neutral49ers at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

49ers

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 49ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaiders 67% · 3

Diverging

ctr49ers 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 100049ers 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 49ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.