Spread: Rams (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (60%) · Rams at 88¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Rams88¢Commanders12¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 87.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams88%

Commanders13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams6 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares11,494

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Commanders4 traders

Total Value$35.8

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$2.88

Rams — 60%Commanders — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrRams 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Ramsavg 60.3¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$411.82	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
AN Anon455	Ramsavg 55.3¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$90.86	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Commandersavg 53.2¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$335.57	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 53.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$104.55
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 65.7¢	$1.0K	$769.12	-$231.02
38 38791873984189	Ramsavg 64¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$502.5	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
RN1ARB<$100	Commandersavg 35.6¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$582.12	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 70.7¢	$539.6	$652.21	+$112.61
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 35.6¢	$1.2K	$476.72	-$694.73
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Ramsavg 61.1¢	$684.62	$891.36	+$206.74	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
GM gmpm2	Ramsavg 56.6¢	$792.25	$742	-$50.25	54% 385-331 (716)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Commandersavg 31.5¢	$240.09	$248.42	+$8.32	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 45.1¢	$99.25	$192.5	+$93.25
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 31.5¢	$140.84	$55.92	-$84.93
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Commandersavg 24¢	$26.69	$22.8	-$3.89	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Commandersavg 38.5¢	$50.36	$9.73	+$4.04	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Ramsavg 50.4¢	$4.54	$6.08	+$1.54	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Commandersavg 49¢	$4.9	$2.65	-$2.25	53% 3744-3342 (7086)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Commandersavg 28¢	$1.4	$0.63	-$0.77	49% 8555-8731 (17286)

ferrariChampions2026

Rams

Invested

$2,756.35

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$411.82

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

Anon455

Rams

Invested

$2,094.17

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$90.86

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$2,488.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$335.57

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

Both legs:

Commanders$1,488.0853.2¢-$104.55

Rams$1,000.1465.7¢-$231.02

38791873984189

Rams

Invested

$1,728

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$502.5

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

RN1ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$1,711.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$582.12

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Rams$539.670.7¢+$112.61

Commanders$1,171.4535.6¢-$694.73

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Rams

Invested

$684.62

Value

$891.36

PnL

+$206.74

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

gmpm2

Rams

Invested

$792.25

Value

$742

PnL

-$50.25

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$240.09

Value

$248.42

PnL

+$8.32

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Rams$99.2545.1¢+$93.25

Commanders$140.8431.5¢-$84.93

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$26.69

Value

$22.8

PnL

-$3.89

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$50.36

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$4.04

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydude<$100

Rams

Invested

$4.54

Value

$6.08

PnL

+$1.54

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$4.9

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$2.25

Record

53%

3744-3342 (7086)

RLWGCTR<$100

Commanders

Invested

$1.4

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.77

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

6 of 10 top traders (60%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Rams. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCommanders 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrRams 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.