Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rams, while the market favors Cardinals (60%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Rams (-7.5)

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (23%) · Rams at 40¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Rams40¢Cardinals60¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 23%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

-$362.44

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 40¢

-23% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRams at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams40%

Cardinals60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams3 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares13,570

Combined PnL-$423.57

Cardinals10 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,714

Combined PnL+$61.13

Rams — 23%Cardinals — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TKD44CTR	Ramsavg 48.5¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$1.15	4% 4-103 (107)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 51.5¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$215.26	49% 497-511 (1008)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 51.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$40
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 59.8¢	$1.2K	$984.91	-$255.26
RN1	Cardinalsavg 51.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0.84	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
PR primmCTR	Ramsavg 59.9¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$418.9	59% 1193-836 (2029)
65 6512395314597884	Cardinalsavg 47.4¢	$503.6	$547.54	+$43.94	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Cardinalsavg 50.3¢	$185.6	$118.88	+$1.83	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 50.3¢	$65.38	$72.15	+$8.8
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 50¢	$52.5	$46.73	-$6.97
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Cardinalsavg 39¢	$54.25	$54.95	+$0.7	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
TA takeormake<$100	Cardinalsavg 53¢	$53	$51.5	-$1.5	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Cardinalsavg 45¢	$43.69	$49.51	+$5.82	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Ramsavg 55¢	$53.39	$47.57	-$5.82	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
38 38791873984189<$100	Cardinalsavg 45.8¢	$42.66	$47.47	+$4.81	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Cardinalsavg 46¢	$29.32	$32.83	+$3.51	50% 663-662 (1325)
VE Venusian<$100	Cardinalsavg 48¢	$12	$15	+$3	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Cardinalsavg 47¢	$9.4	$9.3	-$0.1	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cardinalsavg 40¢	$3.07	$3.18	+$0.11	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

TKD44CTR

Rams

Invested

$4,758.07

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$1.15

Record

4-103 (107)

Anon455ARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3,300.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$215.26

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Both legs:

Cardinals$2,06051.5¢+$40

Rams$1,240.1859.8¢-$255.26

RN1

Cardinals

Invested

$2,630.91

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0.84

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

primmCTR

Rams

Invested

$2,194

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$418.9

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

6512395314597884

Cardinals

Invested

$503.6

Value

$547.54

PnL

+$43.94

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

NotJumpARB<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$185.6

Value

$118.88

PnL

+$1.83

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Both legs:

Cardinals$65.3850.3¢+$8.8

Rams$52.550¢-$6.97

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$54.25

Value

$54.95

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

takeormake<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$53

Value

$51.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

SnakeBall<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$43.69

Value

$49.51

PnL

+$5.82

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

suntoriCTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$53.39

Value

$47.57

PnL

-$5.82

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

38791873984189<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$42.66

Value

$47.47

PnL

+$4.81

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

justaluckydude<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$29.32

Value

$32.83

PnL

+$3.51

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

Venusian<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$12

Value

$15

PnL

+$3

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

Pan9X<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$3.07

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralRams at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.