Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cardinals, while the market favors Rams (99%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rams (-20.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Cardinals (43%) · Cardinals at 1.0¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Rams99¢Cardinals1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cardinals

Consensus Traders

Cardinals 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 1¢

-98% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCardinals at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rams99%

Cardinals1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rams8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,719

Combined PnL+$142.19

Cardinals6 traders

Total Value$589.62

Total Shares4,546

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Rams — 57%Cardinals — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Ramsavg 56¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$24.11	54% 6165-5274 (11439)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$539.78
└ Cardinals leg	Cardinalsavg 42.1¢	$1.1K	$537.66	-$515.66
65 6512395314597884	Ramsavg 65.7¢	$338.59	$472.12	+$133.53	50% 4146-4137 (8283)
AN Anon455CTR	Cardinalsavg 79¢	$214.88	$225.76	+$10.88	50% 563-572 (1135)
scootergene	Ramsavg 91¢	$182	$198.1	+$16.1	13% 21-140 (161)
PainfulvoidCTR	Cardinalsavg 44¢	$1.1K	$191.18	-$930.41	2% 5-258 (263)
FO Forecastication2	Ramsavg 21¢	$153.3	$124.1	-$29.2	44% 360-455 (815)
dips.	Ramsavg 81.1¢	$90.06	$109.72	+$19.66	48% 1360-1476 (2836)
NO NotJump	Ramsavg 50¢	$105	$102.25	+$0.25	49% 1261-1304 (2565)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cardinalsavg 75¢	$1.3K	$69.11	-$680.13	48% 4150-4555 (8705)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Cardinalsavg 22.9¢	$239.8	$54.64	-$26.16	54% 2084-1743 (3827)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Cardinalsavg 44.7¢	$221.92	$47.21	-$174.71	47% 691-793 (1484)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Ramsavg 76¢	$30.4	$39.4	+$9	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ramsavg 66.9¢	$63.13	$35.62	-$7.2	50% 2305-2302 (4607)
CI cigarettes<$100	Ramsavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.88	+$0.04	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Cardinalsavg 32.3¢	$37.03	$1.72	-$35.31	50% 714-704 (1418)

RN1ARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$2,396.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$24.11

Record

54%

6165-5274 (11439)

Both legs:

Rams$1,343.4456¢+$539.78

Cardinals$1,053.3242.1¢-$515.66

6512395314597884

Rams

Invested

$338.59

Value

$472.12

PnL

+$133.53

Record

50%

4146-4137 (8283)

Anon455CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$214.88

Value

$225.76

PnL

+$10.88

Record

50%

563-572 (1135)

scootergene

Rams

Invested

$182

Value

$198.1

PnL

+$16.1

Record

13%

21-140 (161)

PainfulvoidCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,121.59

Value

$191.18

PnL

-$930.41

Record

5-258 (263)

Forecastication2

Rams

Invested

$153.3

Value

$124.1

PnL

-$29.2

Record

44%

360-455 (815)

dips.

Rams

Invested

$90.06

Value

$109.72

PnL

+$19.66

Record

48%

1360-1476 (2836)

NotJump

Rams

Invested

$105

Value

$102.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

1261-1304 (2565)

38791873984189CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$1,309.24

Value

$69.11

PnL

-$680.13

Record

48%

4150-4555 (8705)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Cardinals

Invested

$239.8

Value

$54.64

PnL

-$26.16

Record

54%

2084-1743 (3827)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Cardinals

Invested

$221.92

Value

$47.21

PnL

-$174.71

Record

47%

691-793 (1484)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Rams

Invested

$30.4

Value

$39.4

PnL

+$9

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Pan9X<$100

Rams

Invested

$63.13

Value

$35.62

PnL

-$7.2

Record

50%

2305-2302 (4607)

cigarettes<$100

Rams

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.88

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Cardinals

Invested

$37.03

Value

$1.72

PnL

-$35.31

Record

50%

714-704 (1418)

Research grade

AvoidCardinals at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Cardinals

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Rams 99%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cardinals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.