Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rams, while the market favors Cardinals (72%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

1H Spread: Rams (-3.5)

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Rams (82%) · Rams at 28¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Rams28¢Cardinals72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rams

Consensus Traders

Rams 82%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$473.01

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 28.5¢

-46% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidRams at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams28%

Cardinals72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cardinals2 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,806

Combined PnL+$264.12

Rams9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares7,913

Combined PnL-$737.14

Cardinals — 18%Rams — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Cardinalsavg 46.8¢	$4.0K	$4.3K	+$236.99	30% 30-69 (99)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Ramsavg 51.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$126.26	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ramsavg 52¢	$659.06	$690.51	+$31.44	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
CM cm2897CTR	Ramsavg 55¢	$1.1K	$596.79	-$515.87	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
alpheclabs2CTR	Ramsavg 50¢	$465.52	$507.42	+$41.9	45% 378-471 (849)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Ramsavg 55¢	$220	$218	-$2	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
GA gagarin59CTR	Ramsavg 55¢	$305.2	$163.7	-$141.5	44% 101-128 (229)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Ramsavg 54.8¢	$151.82	$139.83	-$11.98	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
TH thatsabing0	Cardinalsavg 56¢	$104.79	$131.92	+$27.13	62% 287-176 (463)
US User7429CTR	Ramsavg 54.9¢	$140.06	$128.9	-$11.16	43% 438-577 (1015)
dips.CTR<$100	Ramsavg 53¢	$9.54	$7.83	-$1.71	48% 1342-1442 (2784)

lightotunnel35

Cardinals

Invested

$4,029.44

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$236.99

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Rams

Invested

$1,132.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$126.26

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189CTR

Rams

Invested

$659.06

Value

$690.51

PnL

+$31.44

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

cm2897CTR

Rams

Invested

$1,112.65

Value

$596.79

PnL

-$515.87

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

alpheclabs2CTR

Rams

Invested

$465.52

Value

$507.42

PnL

+$41.9

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

topdogbigboiCTR

Rams

Invested

$220

Value

$218

PnL

-$2

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

gagarin59CTR

Rams

Invested

$305.2

Value

$163.7

PnL

-$141.5

Record

44%

101-128 (229)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Rams

Invested

$151.82

Value

$139.83

PnL

-$11.98

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

thatsabing0

Cardinals

Invested

$104.79

Value

$131.92

PnL

+$27.13

Record

62%

287-176 (463)

User7429CTR

Rams

Invested

$140.06

Value

$128.9

PnL

-$11.16

Record

43%

438-577 (1015)

dips.CTR<$100

Rams

Invested

$9.54

Value

$7.83

PnL

-$1.71

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

Research grade

AvoidRams at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Rams

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Cardinals 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rams wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.