Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (59%) · Chiefs at 52¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs52¢Falcons48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 59%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$737.26

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 51.5¢

+7% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs52%

Falcons49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs10 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,463

Combined PnL+$768.95

Falcons7 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares12,048

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Chiefs — 59%Falcons — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Falcons) and the top 1000 (14 on Chiefs) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChiefs 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Chiefsavg 44¢	$3.3K	$3.8K	+$527.36	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Falconsavg 56¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	$-1.4K	30% 30-69 (99)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Chiefsavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.5K	-$289.46	51% 572-546 (1118)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 42.9¢	$707.57	$635.09	-$72.47	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
SU SunlineTicker	Chiefsavg 44¢	$354.64	$540.02	+$185.38	69% 1738-777 (2515)
fyrsken	Chiefsavg 44¢	$352	$536	+$184	49% 69-73 (142)
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$408.49	$470.13	+$61.64	49% 486-502 (988)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Falconsavg 43¢	$474.01	$424.4	-$49.61	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
38 38791873984189	Chiefsavg 43¢	$612.61	$329.43	+$141.3	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LI LightParadox	Chiefsavg 44¢	$264.65	$306.75	+$42.1	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
TA takeormake	Chiefsavg 59.8¢	$157.3	$134.13	-$23.17	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
VeryLucky888CTR	Falconsavg 54.2¢	$114.31	$64.98	-$44.85	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Falconsavg 39.6¢	$39.65	$38.5	-$1.15	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Chiefsavg 51¢	$22.25	$22.03	-$0.22	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 49¢	$21.38	$21.6	+$0.22	46% 653-760 (1413)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 57¢	$11.4	$12.3	+$0.9	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
LI Limousin<$100	Chiefsavg 44¢	$4.76	$5.52	+$0.76	38% 1353-2203 (3556)

Venusian

Chiefs

Invested

$3,314.83

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$527.36

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

lightotunnel35CTR

Falcons

Invested

$4,479.99

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

30%

30-69 (99)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Chiefs

Invested

$2,763.83

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$289.46

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$707.57

Value

$635.09

PnL

-$72.47

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

SunlineTicker

Chiefs

Invested

$354.64

Value

$540.02

PnL

+$185.38

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

fyrsken

Chiefs

Invested

$352

Value

$536

PnL

+$184

Record

49%

69-73 (142)

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$408.49

Value

$470.13

PnL

+$61.64

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Falcons

Invested

$474.01

Value

$424.4

PnL

-$49.61

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

38791873984189

Chiefs

Invested

$612.61

Value

$329.43

PnL

+$141.3

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

LightParadox

Chiefs

Invested

$264.65

Value

$306.75

PnL

+$42.1

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

takeormake

Chiefs

Invested

$157.3

Value

$134.13

PnL

-$23.17

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

VeryLucky888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$114.31

Value

$64.98

PnL

-$44.85

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$39.65

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$1.15

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$22.25

Value

$22.03

PnL

-$0.22

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$21.38

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$11.4

Value

$12.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Limousin<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0.76

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Falcons) and the top 1000 (14 on Chiefs) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrChiefs 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.