Spread: Chiefs (-17.5)

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (73%) · Chiefs at 71¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs71¢Falcons29¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 73%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$3.3K

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 70.5¢

+47% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

11 of 15 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs71%

Falcons30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs11 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares10,202

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Falcons4 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares8,666

Combined PnL-$81.41

Chiefs — 73%Falcons — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888	Chiefsavg 49¢	$2.4K	$4.3K	+$1.8K	43% 247-322 (569)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 50.7¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$48.59	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
CM cm2897	Chiefsavg 49.8¢	$2.0K	$3.3K	+$1.3K	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Falconsavg 56.9¢	$948.25	$631.19	-$40.01	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Falconsavg 49.9¢	$546.08	$590.89	+$44.81	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 49.9¢	$377.16	$403.99	+$26.84
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 42¢	$168.92	$186.89	+$17.97
TA takeormake	Chiefsavg 23¢	$115	$250	+$135	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
JU justaluckydude	Chiefsavg 55¢	$220.87	$204.18	-$10.81	50% 663-662 (1325)
NA NatoAlfista	Chiefsavg 49.3¢	$82.49	$142.92	+$60.43	43% 248-330 (578)
TO topdogbigboi	Chiefsavg 40.8¢	$104.96	$128.58	+$23.62	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Falconsavg 50¢	$185	$100	+$45	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 50¢	$50	$50	+$30
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 35¢	$35	$50	+$15
MA MadridTime<$100	Chiefsavg 46.6¢	$34.4	$63.08	+$28.68	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 47.3¢	$84.97	$51.89	+$5.49	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LightParadox<$100	Chiefsavg 43¢	$15.29	$30.4	+$15.11	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Falconsavg 57¢	$20.27	$17.78	-$2.49	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Falconsavg 51¢	$54.95	$12.5	+$9.67	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Chiefsavg 69¢	$6.21	$6.44	+$0.22	58% 4041-2969 (7010)
AN Anon455<$100	Chiefsavg 49¢	$5.88	$6	+$0.12	49% 497-511 (1008)

biying88888

Chiefs

Invested

$2,442.16

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

43%

247-322 (569)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,774.09

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$48.59

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

cm2897

Chiefs

Invested

$2,018.34

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Falcons

Invested

$948.25

Value

$631.19

PnL

-$40.01

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$546.08

Value

$590.89

PnL

+$44.81

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Falcons$377.1649.9¢+$26.84

Chiefs$168.9242¢+$17.97

takeormake

Chiefs

Invested

$115

Value

$250

PnL

+$135

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

justaluckydude

Chiefs

Invested

$220.87

Value

$204.18

PnL

-$10.81

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

NatoAlfista

Chiefs

Invested

$82.49

Value

$142.92

PnL

+$60.43

Record

43%

248-330 (578)

topdogbigboi

Chiefs

Invested

$104.96

Value

$128.58

PnL

+$23.62

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$185

Value

$100

PnL

+$45

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Both legs:

Invested

$34.4

Value

$63.08

PnL

+$28.68

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$84.97

Value

$51.89

PnL

+$5.49

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LightParadox<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$15.29

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$15.11

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$20.27

Value

$17.78

PnL

-$2.49

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$54.95

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$9.67

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$6.21

Value

$6.44

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

4041-2969 (7010)

Anon455<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$5.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

11 of 15 top traders (73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.