Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Titans, while the market favors Jaguars (65%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (45%) · Titans at 36¢ · $986 held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars65¢Titans35¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 45%

Total Value

$985.51

Combined PnL

-$0.63

Smart Money Entry

36.3¢ → 35.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars65%

Titans36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars6 traders

Total Value$596.24

Total Shares950

Combined PnL-$19.73

Titans5 traders

Total Value$389.27

Total Shares1,021

Combined PnL+$19.1

Jaguars — 55%Titans — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Titans) and the top 1000 (11 on Jaguars) disagree here.

ctrTitans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Jaguarsavg 63¢	$332.22	$313.15	-$19.07	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
TA takeormakeCTR	Titansavg 37¢	$204.09	$223.39	+$19.31	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
fyrskenCTR	Titansavg 35.7¢	$150	$147.2	-$2.8	49% 70-74 (144)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Jaguarsavg 65¢	$84.92	$84.92	+$0	62% 1087-679 (1766)
38 38791873984189	Jaguarsavg 64¢	$238.58	$73.54	+$4.96	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Jaguarsavg 65¢	$70.57	$64.6	-$5.97	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
NO NotJump<$100	Jaguarsavg 61.6¢	$39.26	$37.93	-$1.32	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Jaguarsavg 55¢	$20.42	$22.09	+$1.67	47% 667-767 (1434)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Titansavg 33.3¢	$7.39	$7.76	+$0.37	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
RN1CTR<$100	Titansavg 35¢	$5.12	$5.92	+$0.8	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Titansavg 29¢	$3.58	$5	+$1.42	51% 579-567 (1146)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Jaguars

Invested

$332.22

Value

$313.15

PnL

-$19.07

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

takeormakeCTR

Titans

Invested

$204.09

Value

$223.39

PnL

+$19.31

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

fyrskenCTR

Titans

Invested

$150

Value

$147.2

PnL

-$2.8

Record

49%

70-74 (144)

darkumbreon88<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.92

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

1087-679 (1766)

38791873984189

Jaguars

Invested

$238.58

Value

$73.54

PnL

+$4.96

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

6512395314597884<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$70.57

Value

$64.6

PnL

-$5.97

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

NotJump<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$39.26

Value

$37.93

PnL

-$1.32

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$20.42

Value

$22.09

PnL

+$1.67

Record

47%

667-767 (1434)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$7.39

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

RN1CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$3.58

Value

PnL

+$1.42

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 65%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Titans) and the top 1000 (11 on Jaguars) disagree here.

ctrTitans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.