Spread: Jaguars (-13.5)

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (43%) · Titans at 72¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars28¢Titans72¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 43%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$938.32

Smart Money Entry

48.3¢ → 71.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars28%

Titans72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,889

Combined PnL-$68.64

Titans6 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares6,715

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Jaguars — 57%Titans — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTitans 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jaguars 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Jaguarsavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$0.04	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
TKD44	Titansavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$589.74	4% 4-103 (107)
BI biying88888	Titansavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$367.33	44% 244-314 (558)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Titansavg 43¢	$452.63	$515.79	+$63.16	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Jaguarsavg 51¢	$310.3	$310.33	+$0.04	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Jaguarsavg 45.9¢	$365.59	$303.25	-$62.33	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
VI VirIntrepidus	Titansavg 56¢	$108.28	$94.75	-$13.54	— 15-3 (18)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 51¢	$51	$51	+$0	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 41¢	$22.93	$15.1	-$7.83	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 42.6¢	$10.35	$12.4	+$2.05	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.5	-$0.1	49% 486-502 (988)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 43¢	$5.4	$4.9	-$0.5	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Titansavg 50¢	$2	$2.2	+$0.2	50% 658-658 (1316)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Titansavg 50¢	$0.5	$0.55	+$0.05	58% 4023-2943 (6966)

RN1CTR

Jaguars

Invested

$2,226.6

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

TKD44

Titans

Invested

$1,344.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$589.74

Record

4-103 (107)

biying88888

Titans

Invested

$1,333.29

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$367.33

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Titans

Invested

$452.63

Value

$515.79

PnL

+$63.16

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

6512395314597884CTR

Jaguars

Invested

$310.3

Value

$310.33

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Jaguars

Invested

$365.59

Value

$303.25

PnL

-$62.33

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

VirIntrepidus

Titans

Invested

$108.28

Value

$94.75

PnL

-$13.54

Record

—

15-3 (18)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$51

Value

$51

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$22.93

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$7.83

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$10.35

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Anon455CTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$5.4

Value

$4.9

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

justaluckydude<$100

Titans

Invested

Value

$2.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Titans

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTitans 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTitans 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJaguars 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jaguars 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.